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Serie A

Roma - Fiorentina

08/24/2026, 06:45 PM

4 : 0
预期进球
Roma
2.1
Total xG
2.7
Fiorentina
0.6
最可能的比分

2:0

15%

3:0

11%

1:1

9%

2:1

9%

3:1

6%
xG 分解
ROMFIO

Roma

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.52倍)
+1.37
最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均2.6球)
+0.30
状态上升 (2.6 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
+0.30
最近5场中4场零封
-0.15
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第15位, 相差12位)
+0.12
防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1球)
-0.08
Matías Soulé替补席 (6球, 5助攻)
Niccolò Pisilli未进大名单 (2球, 4助攻)
Zeki Çelik未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻)
11%进球产出缺失 (仅82%可用)

Fiorentina

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.49倍)
-1.04
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
+0.09
排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第3位, 相差12位)
-0.08
防守不足 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
+0.07
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.01
Albert Gudmundsson替补席 (5球, 4助攻)
Robin Gosens未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻)
Manor Solomon未进大名单 (2球, 1助攻)
60%进球产出缺失 (仅43%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.4球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

72%

平局

20%

客胜

8%

进球数

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

双重机会

主胜或平局

92%

客胜或平局

28%

非平局

80%

双方进球

39%

61%

关键因素
  • Severe squad deficit: Fiorentina is missing Albert Gudmundsson, Robin Gosens, and Manor Solomon, leaving only 44% of their usual goal threat available
  • Roma's offensive dominance: The hosts controlled recent matches with 57% average possession and 6.0 shots on target
  • Clear prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 72% probability for a home win, expecting 2.12 goals for Roma
风险因素
  • Injuries in Roma's midfield and defense with L. Pellegrini and K. Koulierakis sidelined
  • Low offensive threat for the visitors, who averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
概述

Roma (10th place, 0 points) host Fiorentina (12th place, 0 points) at the Stadio Olimpico

Serie A match on August 24, 2026, 8:45 PM

The season opener for both teams at the historic Olimpico

近期状态

Roma ended last season in outstanding form with 5 consecutive wins

Their form trend of WWWWW shows a perfect run

Fiorentina travels with a form record of LDWDW and a recent victory

The visitors recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

统计数据

Roma averaged 1.55 goals scored and just 0.82 goals conceded per match last season

The home side was defensively strong, keeping 18 clean sheets

Fiorentina averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded

Away from home, the visitors conceded an average of 1.53 goals

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Roma won 3 times and Fiorentina won twice

The goal difference stands at 8:9 from Roma's perspective

The last meeting on May 4, 2026, ended in a dominant 4:0 home win for Roma

关键球员

Donyell Malen scored 14 goals and provided 2 assists during the season

Paulo Dybala contributed 2 goals and 7 assists with a 7.23 average rating

Defender Gianluca Mancini scored an impressive 3 goals in his last 5 matches

门将

Mile Svilar made 38 appearances with an average rating of 7.01

David de Gea played 37 matches and shows a rising form trend

Roma achieved 18 clean sheets last season compared to Fiorentina's 10

影响因素

The home advantage at the Stadio Olimpico on natural grass strongly favors Roma

Roma conceded only 0.48 goals per home game last season

The stadium average stands at 2.4 goals per game

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