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Serie A

AC Milan - Venezia

08/28/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 0
预期进球
AC Milan
1.8
Total xG
2.7
Venezia
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
xG 分解
AMVEN

AC Milan

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.35倍)
+0.81
防守不足 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
-0.28
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球)
-0.03
Adrien Rabiot未进大名单 (6球, 4助攻)
Christopher Nkunku未进大名单 (7球, 3助攻)
Alexis Saelemaekers未进大名单 (3球, 3助攻)
Youssouf Fofana未进大名单 (2球, 3助攻)
Fikayo Tomori未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
46%进球产出缺失 (仅47%可用)

Venezia

防守不足 (场均失2.2球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+1.05
小样本 (0场) - 均值回归
-0.73
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
-0.12
全员可用
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

57%

平局

26%

客胜

17%

进球数

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

双重机会

主胜或平局

83%

客胜或平局

43%

非平局

74%

双方进球

51%

49%

关键因素
  • Critical squad impact for Milan: Only 47% of goal threat is available, with key players like Adrien Rabiot and Christopher Nkunku missing
  • Tactical dominance by the visitors: Venezia averaged 59% possession and 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Historical superiority: Milan dominated the previous head-to-head matches with two wins and a 6-0 goal difference
风险因素
  • Milan's defensive vulnerability: The home team recently conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match, which is significantly above their season average
  • Venezia's away weakness: The visitors conceded an average of 5.0 goals per away game this season
  • Limited data availability regarding the current player form of Venezia in the provided dataset
概述

AC Milan host Venezia at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Serie A match on August 28, 2026, 8:45 PM

AC Milan sit in 5th place with 3 points after an opening win

Venezia are in 18th place following a defeat on the first matchday

The mathematical model favors the home team with a 57% win probability

近期状态

AC Milan showed mixed performances recently with a form curve of LLWLW

In their last five matches, they recorded two wins and three losses, most recently a 2-1 win against Torino

Venezia travel with a form curve of WDLWL

The visitors registered two wins, one draw, and two losses overall, but lost their latest game 2-0 against Lecce

统计数据

AC Milan score an average of 1.39 goals and concede 0.92 goals per game this season

Venezia average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded over their limited number of matches

The home side kept 15 clean sheets so far this season

Away from home, Venezia conceded an average of 5.0 goals per game this season

历史交锋

In the last two head-to-head matches, AC Milan recorded two wins

The goal difference in these games stands at 6-0 in favor of Milan

The last meeting on April 27, 2025, ended in a 2-0 away win for AC Milan

Venezia have not won a match against Milan in recent history

关键球员

Luka Modrić pulls the strings in Milan's midfield with a strong season rating of 7.33 and one assist in the last five games

Strahinja Pavlović stabilizes the home defense and scored one goal in his last appearances, holding a season average of 6.96

Davide Bartesaghi provides reliable defensive performances with an average rating of 6.93

门将

Mike Maignan starts in goal for AC Milan, holding an average rating of 7.07 this season

Filip Stanković guards the goal for Venezia

The hosts achieved 15 clean sheets this season, while the visitors kept two clean sheets

影响因素

The match will be played on grass at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

The venue stats show a high scoring rate with an average of 3.4 goals per game at this stadium

Both teams scored in 80% of the matches played there

Milan's home advantage is supported by an average of 1.39 home goals scored this season

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