比赛报告 →
AC Milan – Venezia2 : 0
模型为何这样判断
AC Milan
1.79
总 xG
2.69
Venezia
0.90
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | AC Milan | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| 防守不足 (场均失2.2球 vs 联赛平均1.2球) | +1.05 | |
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.35倍) | +0.81 | |
| 小样本 (0场) - 均值回归 | −0.73 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.2球) | −0.28 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球) | −0.12 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球) | −0.03 | |
| Adrien Rabiot未进大名单 (6球, 4助攻) | ||
| Christopher Nkunku未进大名单 (7球, 3助攻) | ||
| Alexis Saelemaekers未进大名单 (3球, 3助攻) | ||
| Youssouf Fofana未进大名单 (2球, 3助攻) | ||
| Fikayo Tomori未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻) | ||
| 46%进球产出缺失 (仅47%可用) | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Critical squad impact for Milan: Only 47% of goal threat is available, with key players like Adrien Rabiot and Christopher Nkunku missing
- Tactical dominance by the visitors: Venezia averaged 59% possession and 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Historical superiority: Milan dominated the previous head-to-head matches with two wins and a 6-0 goal difference
风险
- Milan's defensive vulnerability: The home team recently conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match, which is significantly above their season average
- Venezia's away weakness: The visitors conceded an average of 5.0 goals per away game this season
- Limited data availability regarding the current player form of Venezia in the provided dataset
全部概率
赛果
AC Milan57%
平局26%
Venezia17%
进球
大于 1.576%
小于 1.524%
大于 2.550%
小于 2.550%
大于 3.528%
小于 3.572%
双重机会
AC Milan或平局83%
Venezia或平局43%
非平局74%
双方均进球
是51%
否49%
最可能的比分
1:1
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
首发阵容
AC Milan 3-4-2-1 · Venezia 3-5-2
AC Milan
- 16 M. Maignan
- 34 M. Fuentes
- 5 K. De Winter
- 31 S. Pavlović
- 21 S. Chukwueze
- 80 Y. Musah
- 14 L. Modrić
- 33 D. Bartesaghi
- 8 R. Loftus-Cheek
- 70 A. Cisse
- 9 G. Ramos
Venezia
- 1 F. Stankovic
- 3 J. Schingtienne
- 17 A. Bella-Kotchap
- 4 B. Franjić
- 18 A. Hainaut
- 71 E. Pérez Muñoz
- 6 G. Busio
- 26 T. Bašić
- 5 R. Haps
- 10 J. Zamora
- 45 A. Adams
替补
- 22 D. da Silva Moreira
- 12 A. Rabiot
- 30 A. Jasari
- 2 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 11 C. Pulisic
- 1 P. Terracciano
- 56 A. Saelemaekers
- 46 M. Gabbia
- 96 L. Torriani
- 73 F. Camarda
- 42 F. Terracciano
- 13 S. Bocoum
- 28 C. Comotto
- 14 T. Rendall Correia
- 8 L. Dabo
- 19 S. Sohm
- 7 A. Rrahmani
- 21 T. Helgason
- 96 L. Montipò
- 11 M. Farji
- 20 S. Sagrado
- 23 M. Grandi
- 30 M. Dagasso
- 95 A. Gomes Furtado
- 29 L. Lauberbach
- 90 A. Okoro
- 25 R. Halhal
- 55 S. Panada
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