比赛报告 →
Fiorentina – Frosinone0 : 3
模型为何这样判断
Fiorentina
1.70
总 xG
2.52
Frosinone
0.82
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Fiorentina | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.45倍) | +0.60 | |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.55倍) | −0.48 | |
| 小样本 (0场) - 均值回归 | +0.21 | |
| 状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | +0.10 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | −0.01 | |
| Nicolò Fagioli未进大名单 (2球, 3助攻) | ||
| Robin Gosens未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻) | ||
| Dodô未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻) | ||
| Marco Brescianini替补席 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 55%进球产出缺失 (仅42%可用) |
关键因素
- Only 43% of the usual goal threat is available, as key players Nicolò Fagioli, Robin Gosens, Dodô, and Marco Brescianini are not in the lineup
- The mathematical analysis favors Fiorentina with a calculated win probability of 57%
- Fiorentina is currently scoring more frequently with an average of 1.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.4
风险
- Fiorentina suffered a heavy 0-4 defeat against Roma in their last league match
- Frosinone averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Limited data availability regarding Frosinone's away statistics and player forms
全部概率
赛果
Fiorentina57%
平局27%
Frosinone16%
进球
大于 1.573%
小于 1.527%
大于 2.546%
小于 2.554%
大于 3.525%
小于 3.575%
双重机会
Fiorentina或平局84%
Frosinone或平局43%
非平局73%
双方均进球
是47%
否53%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
5%
0:3
最终比分
首发阵容
Fiorentina 4-3-3 · Frosinone 4-2-3-1
Fiorentina
- 43 D. de Gea Quintana
- 20 A. Jiménez Sánchez
- 3 R. Drăgușin
- 5 M. Pongracic
- 21 V. Valdepeñas Talavera
- 27 C. Ndour
- 42 C. Inao Oulaï
- 14 A. Atta
- 30 F. Mastantuono
- 32 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
- 11 A. Gudmundsson
Frosinone
- 22 L. Palmisani
- 20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
- 3 G. Calvani
- 30 I. Monterisi
- 79 G. Bracaglia
- 73 P. Masini
- 14 G. Calò
- 40 S. Fini
- 10 R. Schmid
- 17 G. Kvernadze
- 9 A. Raimondo
替补
- 4 M. Brescianini
- 17 J. Neto Lopes
- 19 L. Lezzerini
- 53 O. Christensen
- 8 R. Mandragora
- 2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
- 6 L. Ranieri
- 44 N. Fagioli
- 71 S. Jallow
- 33 V. Fernandes Santos Lopes
- 72 B. Mazzeo
- 73 A. Pirrò
- 25 K. Akpoguma
- 11 D. Birligea
- 27 F. Grillitsch
- 71 A. Terzić
- 70 L. Hasa
- 24 A. Zerbin
- 91 S. Desplanches
- 2 G. Cittadini
- 12 M. Pisseri
- 16 M. Cichella
- 74 O. Fayed
- 34 A. El Azzouzi
- 5 W. Amey
- 90 E. Tchato Mbiayi
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