比赛报告 →
Napoli – Como1 : 2
模型为何这样判断
Napoli
1.17
总 xG
2.36
Como
1.19
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Napoli | Como |
|---|---|---|
| 防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.3球) | −0.32 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | −0.20 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.3球) | −0.15 | |
| 最近5场中4场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 最近5场中3场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 状态上升 (2 vs 1.6 赛季平均) | +0.13 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | +0.01 | |
| Alisson Santos替补席 (4球, 0助攻) | ||
| Miguel Gutiérrez未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| Jesús Rodríguez替补席 (2球, 9助攻) | ||
| Máximo Perrone替补席 (3球, 4助攻) | ||
| Marc Oliver Kempf替补席 (4球, 1助攻) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体2球) |
关键因素
- Form trend: Napoli currently score more frequently (2.0) compared to their season average (1.6), while Como's goal production is stalling (1.8) against their season average (2.1)
- Tactical setup: Como averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Napoli's average of 4.2
- Balanced prediction: The mathematical model calculates nearly identical win probabilities of 34% for Napoli and 35% for Como
风险
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
- Missing creative player: Como must play without Jesús Rodríguez, who already contributed 9 assists this season
- Historical draw tendency: 3 of the last 5 head-to-head encounters ended in a draw
全部概率
赛果
Napoli34%
平局31%
Como35%
进球
大于 1.570%
小于 1.530%
大于 2.542%
小于 2.558%
大于 3.521%
小于 3.579%
双重机会
Napoli或平局65%
Como或平局66%
非平局69%
双方均进球
是50%
否50%
最可能的比分
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
0:1
10%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
首发阵容
Napoli 4-3-3 · Como 4-2-3-1
Napoli
- 1 A. Meret
- 22 G. Di Lorenzo
- 13 A. Rrahmani
- 16 R. Marín Zamora
- 17 M. Olivera Miramontes
- 99 A. Zambo Anguissa
- 68 S. Lobotka
- 8 S. McTominay
- 21 M. Politano
- 19 R. Højlund
- 70 N. Lang
Como
- 1 J. Butez
- 27 Y. Couto
- 4 J. Naveros
- 99 T. Chalobah
- 3 ?. Valle Gómez
- 6 L. Milla Manzanares
- 7 L. Da Cunha
- 11 A. Diao Diaoune
- 10 N. Paz Martínez
- 20 M. Baturina
- 9 A. Douvikas
替补
- 32 V. Milinković Savić
- 14 N. Contini Baranovsky
- 31 S. Beukema
- 37 L. Spinazzola
- 6 B. Gilmour
- 20 L. Lucca
- 26 A. Vergara
- 7 D. Neres Campos
- 11 K. De Bruyne
- 27 A. de Almeida Santos
- 23 G. Santana do Nascimento
- 2 C. Favasuli
- 47 C. Garofalo
- 53 W. Kambwala
- 90 I. Monzón
- 15 A. Lahdo
- 14 S. Ricci
- 28 I. Smolčić
- 17 J. Rodríguez Caraballo
- 5 M. Perrone
- 2 M. Kempf
- 8 M. Caqueret
- 18 E. Goldaniga
- 13 A. Dossena
- 22 M. Vigorito
- 12 E. Audero Mulyadi
- 30 M. Liberali
- 16 K. da Silva
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