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Serie A

Juventus - AC Milan

09/06/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Juventus
1.7
Total xG
2.5
AC Milan
0.8
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

5%
xG 分解
JUVAM

Juventus

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.46倍)
+0.49
防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.19
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.17
状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.8 赛季平均)
-0.17
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
Kenan Yıldız未进大名单 (10球, 6助攻)
Weston McKennie未进大名单 (5球, 5助攻)
Dušan Vlahović未进大名单 (7球, 1助攻)
Andrea Cambiaso未进大名单 (3球, 4助攻)
Lloyd Kelly替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
66%进球产出缺失 (仅42%可用)

AC Milan

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.77倍)
-0.87
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.09
Ruben Loftus-Cheek未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻)
Davide Bartesaghi未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻)
11%进球产出缺失 (仅93%可用)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

56%

平局

27%

客胜

17%

进球数

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

双重机会

主胜或平局

83%

客胜或平局

44%

非平局

73%

双方进球

48%

52%

关键因素
  • Severe squad depletion for Juventus: With non-selected players Kenan Yıldız, Weston McKennie, Dušan Vlahović, Andrea Cambiaso, and Lloyd Kelly missing, only 43% of the usual starting XI strength is available
  • Defensive strength of Juventus: Conceding only 0.89 goals per game with 16 clean sheets this season demonstrates a highly reliable defense
  • Mathematical prediction: The model projects a 56% probability of a home win for Juventus with 1.69 expected home goals
风险因素
  • Juventus' stuttering offense: According to advanced stats, Juventus' recent goal production of 1.2 goals per match lags behind their season average of 1.8
  • AC Milan's offensive upswing: The Milanese are currently scoring more frequently (1.8) compared to their season average of 1.5
  • Historically low-scoring matches: Four of the last five head-to-head games ended in draws, with three of those finishing completely goalless at 0-0
概述

Juventus (5th place, 6 points) host AC Milan (4th place, 6 points) at the Juventus Stadium

Serie A match on September 6, 2026, 8:45 PM

A direct clash between two unbeaten teams near the top of the table

近期状态

Juventus has a form of WLDWW with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

AC Milan enters with a form of LWLWW, recording 3 wins and 2 losses

Both teams won their last two matches

统计数据

Juventus scored an average of 1.61 goals and conceded 0.89 goals per game this season

At home, the Bianconeri average 1.59 scored and 0.73 conceded goals

AC Milan scored an average of 1.39 goals and conceded 0.92 goals

Away from home, the Milanese average 1.4 goals scored and only 0.7 goals conceded per game

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juventus won 1, AC Milan won 0, with 4 draws

Juventus scored 2 goals while AC Milan did not score

The last meeting on April 26, 2026 ended in a 0-0 draw

关键球员

Manuel Locatelli impresses in midfield with a rating of 7.4 and two assists

Francisco Conceição contributed three goals and five assists with a rating of 7.09

Pierre Kalulu stabilizes the defense with a rating of 7.0

Adrien Rabiot leads the midfield with six goals and a rating of 7.25

Luka Modrić shines with two goals, three assists, and a rating of 7.33

Strahinja Pavlović has already scored five season goals with a rating of 6.96

门将

Guglielmo Vicario is in goal for Juventus, which has kept 16 clean sheets this season

Mike Maignan appeared in 37 games this season for AC Milan, contributing to their 15 clean sheets

影响因素

At the Juventus Stadium, there was an average of 2.0 goals per game in recent matches

Both teams scored in only one out of five matches, while none of those games went over 2.5 goals

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