Serie A
Atalanta - Cagliari
09/12/2026, 06:45 PM
预期进球
1.3
2.3
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
12%1:0
12%2:0
9%2:1
9%xG 分解
Atalanta
Cagliari
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
43%
平局
31%
客胜
25%
进球数
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
双重机会
主胜或平局
75%
客胜或平局
57%
非平局
69%
双方进球
是
47%
否
53%
关键因素
- Home defense advantage: Atalanta concede only 0.79 goals per home game on average, whereas Cagliari remain highly vulnerable away from home with 1.76 goals
- Tactical metrics: Both teams averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 43% probability for an Atalanta home win
风险因素
- Offensive issues: Cagliari's recent goal production is stalling at an average of 0.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.2
- Low scoring prediction: The model predicts a low-scoring game, with the probability of over 2.5 goals calculated at just 40%
概述
Atalanta (8th place, 6 points) host Cagliari (9th place, 6 points) at the Gewiss Stadium
Serie A match on September 12, 2026, 8:45 PM
A direct duel between two teams level on points in the mid-table
近期状态
Atalanta form: DWWWL with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss across all competitions
Cagliari form: WWLLW with 3 wins and 2 losses
Atalanta lost their last match 1-2 away to Roma
Cagliari won their last match 1-0 at home against Lecce
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
统计数据
Atalanta average 1.34 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded per game this season
Cagliari average 1.05 goals scored and 1.39 goals conceded
Cagliari concede an average of 1.76 goals per game on their travels
Atalanta's home record shows a solid 1.32 goals scored and only 0.79 goals conceded per match
历史交锋
4 head-to-head matches in the historical records
Atalanta have 2 wins, Cagliari recorded 1 win, with 1 match ending in a draw
The last meeting on April 27, 2026, ended in a 3-2 victory for Cagliari
关键球员
For Atalanta, Gianluca Scamacca stands out with 10 goals and Charles De Ketelaere with 3 goals and 5 assists
Lazar Samardžić is also crucial with 2 goals this season
Not nominated: Nicola Zalewski (2G/4A), Giacomo Raspadori (3G/1A)
For the visitors, Paul Mendy leads with 2 goals scored
Adam Obert has contributed 3 assists, while Michel Adopo has 1 goal and 2 assists
门将
Marco Carnesecchi starts for the hosts with an average rating of 7.07 and a rising form trend of +0.53
Cagliari rely on Elia Caprile, who carries a rating of 6.92 and a rising form trend of +0.32
影响因素
The home advantage favors Atalanta, who concede only 0.79 goals on average at their own stadium
Recent games at the Gewiss Stadium averaged 1.0 goals per match
Cagliari show away-day vulnerabilities with 30 goals conceded in 17 away games last season