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Serie A

Atalanta - Cagliari

09/12/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 2
预期进球
Atalanta
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Cagliari
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

12%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
ATACAG

Atalanta

最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.16
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.11
排名优势 (第7位 vs 第14位, 相差7位)
+0.04
Nicola Zalewski未进大名单 (2球, 4助攻)
Giacomo Raspadori未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻)
13%进球产出缺失 (仅80%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.9球 vs 总体1.5球)

Cagliari

最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.11
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
-0.11
排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第7位, 相差7位)
-0.07

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.8球)
+0.31
+0.31
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

43%

平局

31%

客胜

25%

进球数

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

双重机会

主胜或平局

75%

客胜或平局

57%

非平局

69%

双方进球

47%

53%

关键因素
  • Home defense advantage: Atalanta concede only 0.79 goals per home game on average, whereas Cagliari remain highly vulnerable away from home with 1.76 goals
  • Tactical metrics: Both teams averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 43% probability for an Atalanta home win
风险因素
  • Offensive issues: Cagliari's recent goal production is stalling at an average of 0.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.2
  • Low scoring prediction: The model predicts a low-scoring game, with the probability of over 2.5 goals calculated at just 40%
概述

Atalanta (8th place, 6 points) host Cagliari (9th place, 6 points) at the Gewiss Stadium

Serie A match on September 12, 2026, 8:45 PM

A direct duel between two teams level on points in the mid-table

近期状态

Atalanta form: DWWWL with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss across all competitions

Cagliari form: WWLLW with 3 wins and 2 losses

Atalanta lost their last match 1-2 away to Roma

Cagliari won their last match 1-0 at home against Lecce

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Atalanta average 1.34 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded per game this season

Cagliari average 1.05 goals scored and 1.39 goals conceded

Cagliari concede an average of 1.76 goals per game on their travels

Atalanta's home record shows a solid 1.32 goals scored and only 0.79 goals conceded per match

历史交锋

4 head-to-head matches in the historical records

Atalanta have 2 wins, Cagliari recorded 1 win, with 1 match ending in a draw

The last meeting on April 27, 2026, ended in a 3-2 victory for Cagliari

关键球员

For Atalanta, Gianluca Scamacca stands out with 10 goals and Charles De Ketelaere with 3 goals and 5 assists

Lazar Samardžić is also crucial with 2 goals this season

Not nominated: Nicola Zalewski (2G/4A), Giacomo Raspadori (3G/1A)

For the visitors, Paul Mendy leads with 2 goals scored

Adam Obert has contributed 3 assists, while Michel Adopo has 1 goal and 2 assists

门将

Marco Carnesecchi starts for the hosts with an average rating of 7.07 and a rising form trend of +0.53

Cagliari rely on Elia Caprile, who carries a rating of 6.92 and a rising form trend of +0.32

影响因素

The home advantage favors Atalanta, who concede only 0.79 goals on average at their own stadium

Recent games at the Gewiss Stadium averaged 1.0 goals per match

Cagliari show away-day vulnerabilities with 30 goals conceded in 17 away games last season

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