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Serie A

Parma - Genoa

09/20/2026, 01:00 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Parma
1.0
Total xG
1.9
Genoa
0.9
最可能的比分

0:0

16%

1:1

15%

1:0

13%

0:1

11%

2:0

8%
xG 分解
PARGEN

Parma

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.72倍)
-0.47
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.15
状态下滑 (0.4 vs 0.9 赛季平均)
-0.15
防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.01
Sascha Britschgi替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
33%进球产出缺失 (仅64%可用)

Genoa

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.6倍)
-0.85
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.22
状态下滑 (0.6 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
-0.22
Lorenzo Colombo替补席 (7球, 1助攻)
Vitinha替补席 (5球, 1助攻)
36%进球产出缺失 (仅73%可用)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3球)
+0.45
+0.45
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

36%

平局

35%

客胜

29%

进球数

Over 1.5

60%

Under 1.5

40%

Over 2.5

31%

Under 2.5

69%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

双重机会

主胜或平局

71%

客胜或平局

64%

非平局

65%

双方进球

40%

60%

关键因素
  • Weakened attack: Genoa must play without Lorenzo Colombo and Vitinha which reduces offensive threat
  • Tactical stagnation: Parma averaged only 2.8 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • Low goal expectation: The mathematical model calculates only a 31% probability for over 2.5 goals
风险因素
  • Sascha Britschgi is missing for Parma leaving only 65% of the usual goal threat available
  • Parma's ongoing offensive struggles with only 0.4 goals averaged in recent matches
  • Genoa's defensive vulnerability away from home with 1.39 goals conceded per away match on average
概述

Parma hosts Genoa at Stadio Ennio Tardini

Serie A match on September 20, 2026, 3:00 PM

Both teams are at the bottom of the table with only one point

A crucial duel in the relegation battle

近期状态

Parma has a record of LLLDL with one draw and four losses (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Genoa shows a form of LLLDW with one win and three losses

The hosts recently lost 1-2 against Como

Genoa arrives after a 1-0 win against Südtirol

统计数据

Parma averages 0.74 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded per game

Genoa scores 1.08 goals and concedes 1.34 goals on average per game

Parma has failed to score 16 times this season

Genoa concedes 1.39 goals per away game on average

历史交锋

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Parma has 0 wins and Genoa has 2 wins with 2 draws

Parma scored 0 goals and conceded 2 in these direct duels

The last encounter ended in a 0-0 draw on January 18, 2026

关键球员

Emanuele Valeri has 2 assists and a 6.82 average rating in defense

Mandela Keita recorded 1 goal and 1 assist with a 6.84 rating in midfield

Enrico Delprato has scored 2 goals with a 6.71 average rating

Leo Østigård contributes 5 goals and a strong rating of 7.13 for Genoa

Junior Messias has scored 3 goals so far with a 6.86 rating

Tommaso Baldanzi has provided 2 assists with a rating of 6.85

门将

Edoardo Corvi played 17 games this season with an average rating of 6.90

Justin Bijlow guarded Genoa's goal 16 times with an average rating of 6.92

Both goalkeepers display similar statistical consistency in the current campaign

影响因素

Parma's home advantage at Stadio Ennio Tardini is based on 16 goals in 22 home matches

The venue averages 1.6 total goals per game historically

The grass pitch offers stable playing conditions for both sides

The historical rate for over 2.5 goals at this stadium sits at 0 percent

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