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Serie A

AC Milan - Lecce

09/20/2026, 06:45 PM

3 : 0
预期进球
AC Milan
2.0
Total xG
2.7
Lecce
0.8
最可能的比分

2:0

13%

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
xG 分解
AMLEC

AC Milan

排名优势 (第5位 vs 第17位, 相差12位)
+0.11
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球)
-0.02
Ruben Loftus-Cheek替补席 (3球, 1助攻)

Lecce

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.53倍)
-0.78
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第5位, 相差12位)
-0.10
防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
+0.10
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
+0.04
Tiago Gabriel替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
Konan N’Dri替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体0.9球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.9球)
+0.40
+0.40
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

65%

平局

23%

客胜

12%

进球数

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

双重机会

主胜或平局

88%

客胜或平局

35%

非平局

77%

双方进球

47%

53%

关键因素
  • Mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 65% and expects 1.97 home goals
  • Historical dominance with 5 wins for AC Milan from the last 5 head-to-head encounters against Lecce
  • AC Milan controlled games with an average possession of 59% in recent matches
风险因素
  • Setback in form following AC Milan's recent 0-2 defeat against Benfica
  • Lecce shows a slightly positive form trend, scoring more recently (1.0) than their season average (0.9)
  • Limited data on duel statistics (totalDuels) in the provided dataset
概述

AC Milan (7th place, 8 points) host Lecce (12th place, 6 points) at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Serie A match on September 20, 2026, 8:45 PM

The home team enters this clash as clear favorites

近期状态

AC Milan holds a form of WWDDL

Their last match ended in a 0-2 defeat against Benfica

Lecce shows a form of LWLLW after a recent 3-2 victory over Monza

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

AC Milan scores an average of 1.39 goals per home game

The Rossoneri defense concedes an average of 1.17 goals at home

Lecce records an average of 0.75 goals per away match

The visitors concede an average of 1.3 goals per away game

历史交锋

Five head-to-head matches have taken place in recent years

AC Milan has won all 5 encounters

The last direct meeting ended 1-0 in favor of the home team

The goal difference stands at 12-2 for the Rossoneri

关键球员

Christian Pulisic has scored 8 goals and provided 4 assists this season

Adrien Rabiot has 6 season goals and 4 assists

Luka Modrić has contributed 2 goals and 3 assists so far

Lassana Coulibaly has scored 3 season goals for Lecce

Danilo Veiga recently assisted 2 goals

Santiago Pierotti has 1 season goal and 2 assists

门将

Mike Maignan played 37 matches this season and recorded 15 clean sheets

Wladimiro Falcone completed 38 matches and achieved 10 clean sheets

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

The stadium averages 4.4 goals per game

Home advantage based on 25 home goals scored and 21 conceded by the Rossoneri

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