比赛报告 →
Genoa – Fiorentina2 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Genoa
1.36
总 xG
2.60
Fiorentina
1.25
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Genoa | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.52倍) | −0.85 | |
| 小样本 (2场) - 均值回归 | +0.68 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.9球) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| 最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.15 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.3 赛季平均) | −0.15 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.5球) | +0.12 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球) | +0.10 | |
| 状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | +0.10 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | +0.09 | |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.76倍) | −0.09 | |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | −0.03 | |
| Lorenzo Colombo未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻) | ||
| Mateo Pellegrino替补席 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| 23%进球产出缺失 (仅100%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.4球) |
关键因素
- Form trend: Genoa's goal output stagnated at 0.8 goals per game recently (season avg 1.3), while Fiorentina improved to 1.8 goals per game
- Tactical edge: Fiorentina averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Genoa's 3.8
- Model prediction: The calculated pipeline gives a 38% home win probability with expected goals of 1.36 to 1.25
风险
- Squad impact: Lorenzo Colombo is missing from Genoa's starting lineup, leaving 79% of normal attacking strength available
- Away defensive weakness: Fiorentina concede an average of 1.53 goals per away game
- Schedule gap: Both teams enter the match after 20 days without competitive match practice
全部概率
赛果
Genoa38%
平局30%
Fiorentina33%
进球
大于 1.575%
小于 1.525%
大于 2.548%
小于 2.552%
大于 3.526%
小于 3.574%
双重机会
Genoa或平局67%
Fiorentina或平局62%
非平局70%
双方均进球
是55%
否45%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
首发阵容
Genoa 4-2-3-1 · Fiorentina 4-2-3-1
Genoa
- 1 J. Bijlow
- 3 K. Ehizibue
- 34 S. Otoa
- 5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
- 22 J. Vásquez Ibarra
- 25 H. Traorè
- 32 M. Frendrup
- 77 M. Ellertsson
- 10 J. Messias
- 92 S. El Shaarawy
- 18 M. Osmajić
Fiorentina
- 43 D. de Gea Quintana
- 20 A. Jiménez Sánchez
- 3 R. Drăgușin
- 6 L. Ranieri
- 21 V. Valdepeñas Talavera
- 27 C. Ndour
- 44 N. Fagioli
- 30 F. Mastantuono
- 42 C. Inao Oulaï
- 29 D. Gnonto
- 23 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
替补
- 16 C. Drameh
- 8 T. Baldanzi
- 39 D. Sommariva
- 27 A. Marcandalli
- 20 S. Sabelli
- 9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
- 99 F. Stolz
- 71 S. Wiafe
- 75 G. Lafont
- 2 M. Mitaj
- 21 R. de Souza Júnior
- 14 L. Klišys
- 31 D. Puczka
- 4 M. Brescianini
- 28 P. Pereira Gonçalves
- 17 J. Neto Lopes
- 19 L. Lezzerini
- 53 O. Christensen
- 5 M. Pongracic
- 2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
- 25 A. Njie
- 32 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
- 33 V. Fernandes Santos Lopes
- 72 B. Mazzeo
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