比赛报告 →
Cagliari – Juventus1 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Cagliari
1.20
总 xG
2.55
Juventus
1.35
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Cagliari | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.63倍) | −1.02 | |
| 小样本 (2场) - 均值回归 | +0.68 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.9球) | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.3球) | −0.22 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.5球) | −0.21 | |
| 最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.4球) | +0.17 | |
| 状态上升 (2.4 vs 1.8 赛季平均) | +0.17 | |
| 最近5场中3场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 小样本 (2场) - 均值回归 | +0.07 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球) | −0.05 | |
| 全员可用 | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Low active goal share: Only 13% of season goal production is active in the available squads for both Cagliari and Juventus
- Offensive trend for Juventus: The visitors averaged 2.4 goals per match in recent games compared to their season average of 1.8
- Mathematical prediction: Models calculate a 39% probability for an away win with 1.35 expected goals for Juventus
风险
- Cagliari's goal production slowed down to 1.0 goals per match recently compared to their 1.2 season average
- Juventus conceded an average of 1.12 goals per match in away games this season
全部概率
赛果
Cagliari32%
平局30%
Juventus39%
进球
大于 1.574%
小于 1.526%
大于 2.547%
小于 2.553%
大于 3.525%
小于 3.575%
双重机会
Cagliari或平局61%
Juventus或平局69%
非平局70%
双方均进球
是53%
否47%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
首发阵容
Cagliari 4-3-2-1 · Juventus 4-2-3-1
Cagliari
- 1 E. Caprile
- 2 J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
- 26 Y. Mina González
- 15 J. Rodríguez Camejo
- 33 A. Obert
- 8 M. Adopo
- 6 H. Winks
- 4 A. Romano
- 79 Y. Massolin
- 70 D. Maldini
- 31 P. Mendy
Juventus
- 25 G. Vicario
- 15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
- 26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 2 M. Çelik
- 29 P. Sarr
- 12 D. Soares de Paulo
- 7 F. Conceição
- 22 W. McKennie
- 31 N. González
- 9 R. Kolo Muani
替补
- 28 Y. Sugawara
- 9 K. Omoruyi Benjamin
- 10 J. Fazzini
- 18 M. N'Zola
- 39 A. Fadera
- 21 R. Gagliardini
- 27 J. Liteta
- 14 A. Deiola
- 12 A. Sherri
- 20 R. Ciervo
- 23 B. Radunović
- 24 G. Aurelio
- 22 R. Kofler
- 32 I. Sulev
- 35 A. Sugamele
- 27 N. Woltemade
- 32 J. Cabal Murillo
- 4 F. Gatti
- 11 E. Zhegrova
- 24 D. Rugani
- 8 T. Koopmeiners
- 23 C. Pinsoglio
- 20 A. Cambiaso
- 6 L. Kelly
- 17 K. Alajbegović
- 40 R. Radu
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