比赛报告 →
Torino – Udinese2 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Torino
1.30
总 xG
2.64
Udinese
1.33
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Torino | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.61倍) | −0.40 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.8球) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| 小样本 (2场) - 均值回归 | +0.18 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球) | +0.16 | |
| 状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.3 赛季平均) | +0.16 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.13 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.2 赛季平均) | −0.13 | |
| 小样本 (2场) - 均值回归 | −0.12 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.3球) | +0.01 | |
| Keinan Davis替补席 (0球, 2助攻) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均0.8球 vs 总体1.3球) | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Reduced attacking output: Torino currently have only 11% of their usual seasonal goal production available
- Tactical threat: Udinese averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Model prediction: The probability of an away win for Udinese is calculated at 36%
风险
- Defensive vulnerability: Udinese conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match in their last 5 games
- Low scoring form: Torino averaged only 0.8 goals per match over their last 5 fixtures
- Missing key player: Keinan Davis is not included in Udinese's lineup
全部概率
赛果
Torino35%
平局29%
Udinese36%
进球
大于 1.576%
小于 1.524%
大于 2.549%
小于 2.551%
大于 3.527%
小于 3.573%
双重机会
Torino或平局64%
Udinese或平局65%
非平局71%
双方均进球
是55%
否45%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
首发阵容
Torino 3-4-2-1 · Udinese 3-4-2-1
Torino
- 20 L. Estella Perri
- 15 P. Comuzzo
- 23 S. Coco-Bassey Oubiña
- 13 R. Rodríguez Araya
- 45 R. Belghali
- 8 R. Mandragora
- 21 D. Santos Bragança
- 77 A. Cacciamani
- 11 G. Oristanio
- 19 C. Adams
- 18 G. Simeone
Udinese
- 40 M. Okoye
- 14 J. Abankwah
- 28 O. Solet Bomawoko
- 77 E. Ebosse
- 23 M. Vojvoda
- 8 J. Karlström
- 6 O. Zarraga Egaña
- 11 H. Kamara
- 32 J. Ekkelenkamp
- 30 G. Chakvetadze
- 46 U. Gómez Etxebarria
替补
- 5 E. Cömert
- 2 N. Patterson
- 28 K. Fitz-Jim
- 17 S. Kulenovic
- 44 A. Ismajli
- 91 D. Zapata Banguera
- 66 G. Gineitis
- 10 N. Vlašić
- 7 Z. Aboukhlal
- 6 E. İlkhan
- 3 C. Biraghi
- 22 C. Casadei
- 9 P. Pellegri
- 26 D. Mascardi
- 76 L. Siviero
- 91 L. Jovanović
- 5 D. Olatukunbo Alaba
- 41 B. Mrozek
- 27 C. Kabasele
- 9 K. Davis
- 38 L. Miller
- 20 J. Arizala
- 16 M. Palma
- 4 S. Lovric
- 93 D. Padelli
- 13 N. Bertola
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