Liga Portugal
Nacional - Estoril
08/16/2026, 02:30 PM
预期进球
1.2
2.3
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
12%1:0
10%0:1
9%2:1
8%xG 分解
Nacional
Estoril
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
36%
平局
32%
客胜
33%
进球数
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
双重机会
主胜或平局
67%
客胜或平局
64%
非平局
68%
双方进球
是
48%
否
52%
关键因素
- Squad weakness: Only 45% of goal threat available, without Jesús Ramírez, José Gomes, Paulinho Bóia, Alan Nuñez
- Form trends: Nacional shows a positive trend (1.4 goals recently) compared to Estoril's slump (0.8 goals)
- Historical edge: Estoril remains undefeated in all previous head-to-head matches
风险因素
- Away weakness: Estoril concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away game
- Goalkeeper risk: Limited statistical data available for Nacional's starting keeper Renato Marin
概述
Nacional (9th place, 1 point) hosts Estoril (13th place, 1 point) at Estádio da Madeira
Liga Portugal match on August 16, 2026, 3:30 PM
The mathematical model predicts a close match with 1.18 to 1.12 expected goals
近期状态
Nacional shows a form of WLLWD with 2 wins and 1 draw
Their recent average of 1.4 goals is higher than their season average of 1.2
Estoril is struggling with a form of LDDLD and 0 wins in the last 5 games
Their scoring has dropped to 0.8 goals recently compared to 1.6 in the season
统计数据
Nacional scored 37 and conceded 45 goals over 34 matches
Estoril scored 54 goals but conceded 57 times
Estoril struggles defensively on the road, conceding 1.94 goals on average
历史交锋
Estoril has been historically dominant in this matchup
Out of 4 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 2 with 2 draws
The last meeting ended in a 0-1 victory for Estoril
关键球员
Ze Vitor anchors the defense with a 7.00 rating and 4 goals
Liziero directs the midfield with a 7.04 rating and 4 assists
Léo Santos contributed 3 goals with a 6.85 average rating
João Carvalho impresses with a 7.14 rating, 6 goals, and 12 assists
Yanis Begraoui remains dangerous with 20 goals and a 7.04 rating
Rafik Guitane contributes with 3 goals and 5 assists
Not nominated: Jordan Holsgrove (1T/7A), Felix Bacher (2T/0A), Pedro Amaral (0T/2A)
门将
Joel Robles has played 31 games for Estoril
Renato Marin starts for Nacional with limited statistical data available
Joel Robles has a declining form rating of 6.40 in recent matches
影响因素
The match takes place on the grass pitch of Estádio da Madeira
Venue history shows a low-scoring trend of 1.8 goals per match
Both teams scored in only 20% of previous games at this venue