Liga Portugal
Vitória Guimarães - Nacional
08/23/2026, 02:30 PM
预期进球
1.7
2.4
0.8
1:0
13%1:1
13%2:0
12%0:0
10%2:1
9%xG 分解
Vitória Guimarães
Nacional
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
58%
平局
27%
客胜
15%
进球数
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
双重机会
主胜或平局
85%
客胜或平局
42%
非平局
73%
双方进球
是
44%
否
56%
关键因素
- Mathematical favorites: The model calculates a home win probability of 58% and 1.67 expected goals for Vitória Guimarães
- Critical squad impact for Nacional: Only 52% of goal threat available without the unlisted Jesús Ramírez (18 goals), José Gomes (1 goal, 5 assists), and Paulinho Bóia (4 goals, 2 assists)
- Tactical dominance: Vitória Guimarães recently controlled possession with an average of 55%
风险因素
- Home team form crisis: Vitória Guimarães have lost their last 5 matches in a row (LLLLL)
- Defensive vulnerability: Nacional concede an average of 1.69 goals per away match
- Limited data availability on historical away performances
概述
Vitória Guimarães host Nacional at the Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Liga Portugal match on August 23, 2026, 3:30 PM
The 17th-placed home side with 0 points face 6th-placed Nacional with 4 points
Vitória Guimarães are under pressure after two consecutive losses to start the season
近期状态
Vitória Guimarães are in a negative spiral with 5 consecutive losses (LLLLL)
The home team's goal production is stagnant at 0.6 goals recently compared to the season average of 1.2
Nacional show a positive form trend with 2 wins and 1 draw recently (LLWDW)
The visitors are currently scoring more frequently (1.4 goals) than their season average of 1.2
Form key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Vitória Guimarães scored 39 goals (avg. 1.15) and conceded 51 goals (avg. 1.5) over the season
Nacional scored 37 goals (avg. 1.09) and conceded 45 goals (avg. 1.32)
Vitória Guimarães' home record shows a stable defense with only 0.83 goals conceded per game
Nacional concede an average of 1.69 goals per away match
Vitória Guimarães' home matches averaged 2.4 goals with a BTTS rate of 20%
历史交锋
There have been 4 head-to-head matches between the two teams
Balanced record with 2 wins for Vitória Guimarães, 1 win for Nacional, and 1 draw
The last encounter on May 16, 2026, ended in a 2-0 win for Nacional
Both teams scored a total of 6 goals each in these duels
关键球员
Midfielder Samu is the most dangerous player for Vitória Guimarães with 7 season goals
Gustavo Silva contributed 5 goals and 2 assists for the home team this season
Defender Ze Vitor is a key pillar for Nacional with 4 goals and an average rating of 7.00
门将
Goalkeeper Oliwier Zych recorded 10 clean sheets this season, with 5 in home matches
Renato Marin in Nacional's goal achieved 8 clean sheets, including 3 away from home
影响因素
Vitória Guimarães benefit from home advantage at the Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques with only 0.83 goals conceded per home game
Nacional show away weakness with an average of 1.69 goals conceded per game on natural grass
Historical venue stats show a low BTTS rate of just 20% (1 out of 5 games)