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Arouca – Marítimo2 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Arouca
1.03
总 xG
2.08
Marítimo
1.05
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Arouca | Marítimo |
|---|---|---|
| 防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | −0.40 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.8球) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| 小样本 (0场) - 均值回归 | −0.26 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.2球) | +0.23 | |
| 状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | +0.23 | |
| Hyun-ju Lee未进大名单 (7球, 3助攻) |
关键因素
- Extremely balanced prediction: The model calculates almost identical probabilities for all three outcomes (33% home win, 34% draw, 34% away win)
- Improved home attack: Arouca is scoring more frequently in recent games with an average of 2.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.38
- Counter-attacking style: Marítimo averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches despite holding just 42% possession
风险
- Defensive vulnerability: Arouca concedes a season average of 1.88 goals per match
- Key player missing: Hyun-ju Lee (7 goals, 3 assists) is not nominated for this match
全部概率
赛果
Arouca33%
平局34%
Marítimo34%
进球
大于 1.563%
小于 1.537%
大于 2.534%
小于 2.566%
大于 3.516%
小于 3.584%
双重机会
Arouca或平局66%
Marítimo或平局67%
非平局66%
双方均进球
是44%
否56%
最可能的比分
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
0:1
11%
1:0
11%
1:2
7%
2:1
最终比分
首发阵容
Arouca 4-2-3-1 · Marítimo 4-2-3-1
Arouca
- 12 I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
- 28 T. Sousa Esgaio
- 15 J. Sánchez de Felipe
- 3 J. Fontán Mondragón
- 18 O. Lebedenko
- 6 E. van Ee
- 8 T. Fukui
- 19 A. Trezza Hernández
- 10 P. Gozalbez Gilabert
- 7 N. Djouahra
- 17 I. Martínez Gonzálvez
Marítimo
- 13 A. Pastor Vacas
- 2 I. de Carvalho Julião
- 4 R. Gomes Fernandes
- 44 R. Rodrigues Correia
- 23 P. Rodrigues Cabral
- 6 R. Rodrigues Andrade
- 18 V. Danilović
- 35 B. Limbombe
- 14 R. Guzzo
- 10 M. Tejón Fauli
- 17 A. Butzke Benavides
替补
- 37 M. Climent Plá
- 9 F. Mayulu
- 5 B. Popović
- 14 H. Lee
- 24 B. Mansilla
- 21 M. Flores Lozano
- 89 P. Carvalho Santos
- 4 D. Pinheiro Monteiro
- 23 D. Nandín Berrutti
- 1 J. Vinarčík
- 77 S. Park
- 71 M. da Silva Duarte
- 21 I. Alani
- 30 F. Barbosa Vieites
- 22 G. Szalai
- 5 N. Lopes
- 1 J. Macedo Tabuaco
- 27 S. Bamba
- 90 M. Boakye
- 66 I. Ayuma
- 68 N. Batista
- 16 F. Silva
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