比赛报告 →
Academico Viseu – Porto0 : 3
模型为何这样判断
Academico Viseu
1.08
总 xG
3.51
Porto
2.43
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Academico Viseu | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.36倍) | +1.46 | |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.62倍) | −0.87 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失0.6球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | −0.82 | |
| 小样本 (0场) - 均值回归 | +0.51 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.8球) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| 防守不足 (场均失1.7球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | +0.23 | |
| 最近5场中4场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | −0.08 | |
| Deniz Gül替补席 (5球, 1助攻) | ||
| Alan Varela替补席 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Mathematical dominance with a calculated away win probability of 66%
- Clear class gap between second-placed Porto and 12th-placed Academico Viseu
- Offensive dominance by Porto averaging 6.0 shots on target recently
风险
- Porto's goal production is slightly lagging in recent matches with 1.6 goals compared to their 1.9 season average
- Limited dataset regarding player statistics for Academico Viseu
- Lack of head-to-head history in the provided dataset
全部概率
赛果
Academico Viseu14%
平局20%
Porto66%
进球
大于 1.587%
小于 1.513%
大于 2.568%
小于 2.532%
大于 3.546%
小于 3.554%
双重机会
Academico Viseu或平局34%
Porto或平局86%
非平局80%
双方均进球
是61%
否39%
最可能的比分
1:2
10%
1:3
8%
0:3
7%
2:2
5%
1:4
5%
首发阵容
Academico Viseu 4-3-3 · Porto 4-3-3
Academico Viseu
- 98 E. Ferreira da Silva
- 75 R. Ribeiro Vieira
- 41 A. Correia
- 2 N. Michelis
- 57 G. Abreu Costa
- 8 C. Kahraman
- 7 L. da Costa Silva
- 14 S. Messeguem
- 31 J. de Sousa Crispim
- 33 A. Silva Filho
- 47 L. Gohi
Porto
- 99 D. Meireles Costa
- 20 A. Costa
- 5 J. Bednarek
- 4 J. Kiwior
- 12 Z. Sanusi
- 8 V. Froholdt
- 13 P. Rosario
- 10 G. Veiga Novas
- 7 W. Gomes Carvalho Santos
- 19 A. Valente Silva
- 11 E. Aquino Cossa
替补
- 9 M. Bouldini
- 12 J. Soriano Oropesa
- 45 A. García Mestanza
- 6 A. Castanheira Ceitil
- 10 A. Zamora
- 18 C. Ferreira
- 29 A. Babić
- 5 P. Barcelos Silva
- 44 R. Gomes Pereira
- 1 M. Lavín Rodríguez
- 21 T. Caldas Januário Carvalho Domingos
- 22 N. Mortimer Moreno
- 16 I. Hwang
- 21 D. Prpić
- 52 M. Moreira Moutinho Fernandes
- 22 A. Varela
- 24 J. Santos da Costa
- 17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
- 27 D. Gül
- 14 C. Morais Ramos
- 74 F. Moura
- 18 N. Pérez
- 58 T. Silva
- 57 D. Cunha
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