比赛报告 →
Rio Ave – Sporting CP0 : 4
模型为何这样判断
Rio Ave
0.88
总 xG
2.73
Sporting CP
1.85
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Rio Ave | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.31倍) | +0.61 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.3球) | −0.37 | |
| 最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均3球) | +0.16 | |
| 状态上升 (3 vs 2.5 赛季平均) | +0.16 | |
| 排名劣势 (第12位 vs 第2位, 相差10位) | −0.10 | |
| 排名优势 (第2位 vs 第12位, 相差10位) | +0.09 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.09 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.1 赛季平均) | −0.09 | |
| Georgios Vagiannidis替补席 (0球, 4助攻) | ||
| Eduardo Quaresma替补席 (2球, 2助攻) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.7球 vs 总体2.5球) |
关键因素
- Matchup advantage: Sporting CP's clinical offense (season average of 2.62 goals scored) meets Rio Ave's vulnerable defense conceding 1.68 goals per game
- Possession dominance: Sporting CP controlled recent matches with 62% average possession and averaged 3.0 goals per game recently
- Clear model prediction: The mathematical forecast estimates a 59% win probability for the away side and expects 1.85 goals for Sporting
风险
- Home defensive vulnerability: Rio Ave concedes an average of 1.71 goals in home matches
- Offensive stagnation: Rio Ave's goal scoring stalled recently, averaging only 0.8 goals per match
- Missing key player: Sporting CP will be without the prolific P. Pereira Gonçalves due to injury
全部概率
赛果
Rio Ave16%
平局25%
Sporting CP59%
进球
大于 1.577%
小于 1.523%
大于 2.551%
小于 2.549%
大于 3.529%
小于 3.571%
双重机会
Rio Ave或平局41%
Sporting CP或平局84%
非平局75%
双方均进球
是51%
否49%
最可能的比分
1:1
12%
0:2
11%
1:2
10%
0:3
7%
1:3
6%
0:4
最终比分
首发阵容
Rio Ave 4-2-3-1 · Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
Rio Ave
- 99 E. van der Gouw
- 54 G. Liavas
- 23 F. Petrasso
- 39 G. Teixeira Lopes da Conceição
- 17 M. Vrousai
- 44 T. Nikitscher
- 5 A. Ntoi
- 7 D. Bezerra de Oliveira
- 11 J. Miller Blesa
- 77 D. Špikić
- 9 T. Folgado Monteiro
Sporting CP
- 1 R. Dantas da Silva
- 22 I. Fresneda Corraliza
- 6 Z. Debast
- 25 G. Inácio
- 20 M. Araújo Vilches
- 5 S. Altimira Clavell
- 77 I. Doumbia
- 10 G. Cipriano Catamo
- 17 R. Zalazar Martínez
- 58 F. Gonçalves
- 97 L. Suárez Charris
替补
- 22 K. Chamorro Rodríguez
- 14 J. Brabec
- 24 P. Gaspar Amaral
- 20 J. Esteves Baptista
- 27 T. Medina
- 25 R. Genuino Lobato
- 30 R. Galčík
- 60 C. Valença
- 67 S. Alves
- 70 A. Wenck
- 79 M. Almeida Patrício
- 19 M. Sellouki
- 19 N. Irankunda
- 13 G. Vagiannidis
- 7 F. Ioannidis
- 31 L. Lira dos Santos
- 72 E. Quaresma Coimbra Simões
- 4 S. Andersen
- 41 D. Calai Silva
- 9 R. Nel
- 21 P. Lima Barros
- 55 I. Ba
- 50 R. Amores Dias
- 28 J. Derry
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