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Liga Portugal

Nacional - Estrela Amadora

08/30/2026, 02:30 PM

2 : 3
预期进球
Nacional
1.3
Total xG
2.4
Estrela Amadora
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%
xG 分解
NACEA

Nacional

最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.2球)
+0.02
48%进球产出缺失 (仅63%可用)

Estrela Amadora

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.75倍)
-0.51
状态上升 (2 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
+0.20
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.07
Paulo Moreira未进大名单 (3球, 2助攻)
Jefferson Encada替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
32%进球产出缺失 (仅69%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.8球 vs 总体1.4球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.8球)
+0.32
+0.32
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

42%

平局

31%

客胜

28%

进球数

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

双重机会

主胜或平局

72%

客胜或平局

58%

非平局

69%

双方进球

50%

50%

关键因素
  • The mathematical prediction favors Nacional with a 42% win probability (expected goals: 1.35 to 1.06)
  • Nacional averaged only 2.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Estrela Amadora played counter-oriented in recent games, averaging 39% possession
风险因素
  • Nacional plays with a weakened squad, with only 63% of the usual goal threat available
  • Estrela Amadora misses Paulo Moreira and Jefferson Encada, leaving only 70% of the usual goal threat available
  • Estrela Amadora concedes an average of 2.13 goals in away matches
概述

Nacional (8th place, 4 points) host Estrela Amadora (11th place, 2 points) at the Estádio da Madeira

Liga Portugal match on August 30, 2026, 2:30 PM

A mid-table clash where both teams aim to climb higher

近期状态

Nacional with form LWDWL in recent matches

Last match ended in a 0-1 loss against Vitória Guimarães

Estrela Amadora with form LDDDD enters with four consecutive draws

Their last game was a 2-2 draw against Alverca

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Nacional scored an average of 1.09 goals and conceded 1.32 this season

In home games, they scored 1.10 and conceded 1.10 goals on average

Estrela Amadora scored 1.12 goals on average and conceded 1.65 per game

In away matches, the visitors concede an average of 2.13 goals

历史交锋

4 head-to-head matches in recent years

Estrela Amadora leads with 2 wins, Nacional has 1 win and 1 draw

The last encounter ended in a 2-0 win for Nacional on April 4, 2026

关键球员

Léo Santos with 3 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.85

Ze Vitor contributed 4 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.00

Liziero shines in midfield with 4 assists and a rating of 7.04

Abraham Marcus scored 5 goals and provided 5 assists (Rating: 7.04)

Ianis Stoica has 3 goals and 2 assists (Rating: 6.73)

Stefan Leković scored 2 goals with an average rating of 7.10

门将

Renato Marin starts in goal for Nacional, who recorded 8 clean sheets this season

Léo Linck is in goal for Estrela Amadora, who also achieved 8 clean sheets

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estádio da Madeira

Nacional scores an average of 1.10 goals and concedes 1.10 at home

The venue history shows an average of 2.0 goals per game

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