比赛报告 →
Nacional – Estrela Amadora2 : 3
模型为何这样判断
Nacional
1.35
总 xG
2.41
Estrela Amadora
1.06
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Nacional | Estrela Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.75倍) | −0.51 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.8球) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| 状态上升 (2 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | +0.20 | |
| 最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | +0.07 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.2球) | +0.02 | |
| 48%进球产出缺失 (仅63%可用) | ||
| Paulo Moreira未进大名单 (3球, 2助攻) | ||
| Jefferson Encada替补席 (0球, 2助攻) | ||
| 32%进球产出缺失 (仅69%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均0.8球 vs 总体1.4球) |
关键因素
- The mathematical prediction favors Nacional with a 42% win probability (expected goals: 1.35 to 1.06)
- Nacional averaged only 2.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Estrela Amadora played counter-oriented in recent games, averaging 39% possession
风险
- Nacional plays with a weakened squad, with only 63% of the usual goal threat available
- Estrela Amadora misses Paulo Moreira and Jefferson Encada, leaving only 70% of the usual goal threat available
- Estrela Amadora concedes an average of 2.13 goals in away matches
全部概率
赛果
Nacional42%
平局31%
Estrela Amadora28%
进球
大于 1.571%
小于 1.529%
大于 2.543%
小于 2.557%
大于 3.522%
小于 3.578%
双重机会
Nacional或平局72%
Estrela Amadora或平局58%
非平局69%
双方均进球
是50%
否50%
最可能的比分
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
2:3
最终比分
首发阵容
Nacional 3-4-2-1 · Estrela Amadora 4-3-3
Nacional
- 1 R. Bellucci Marin
- 34 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
- 6 Matheus Dias
- 38 J. Lima Cardoso
- 52 W. de Oliveira Andrade
- 28 I. Liziero Pereira
- 22 F. Barros Soares
- 21 W. Kokolo
- 8 M. Baeza Pérez
- 10 D. de Melo Araujo Junior
- 99 P. Messias Cardozo
Estrela Amadora
- 24 L. Baiersdorf Linck
- 21 M. Scholze
- 30 L. Wiedthauper
- 5 S. Leković
- 55 L. Soares Alves
- 14 L. Zvonarek
- 39 E. Doué
- 8 R. Oliveira Botelho
- 99 A. Marcus
- 37 L. Antonetti
- 10 I. Stoica
替补
- 7 M. Jensen
- 13 J. Oliveira Gonçalves
- 33 F. Baptista Gonçalves
- 50 K. Medeiros de Freitas
- 88 Deivison Souza Brito
- 31 D. Dongmo
- 17 F. Nava Ortega
- 11 S. Gavriel
- 23 M. José Iseppe
- 2 D. de la Cruz
- 9 A. Obando
- 20 M. Djaló
- 19 J. Jordán Moreno
- 9 S. van Hooijdonk
- 51 D. de Carvalho Pinto
- 4 B. Schappo
- 17 J. Silva Encada
- 79 A. Atanasov Chernev
- 80 A. Souza de Jesus
- 22 D. Allen Grilo
- 3 L. Mincarelli Davin
- 93 B. Loussakou Souza
- 78 S. Ferreira Serra
- 71 E. Pedro Vanga
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