比赛报告 →
Alverca – Santa Clara1 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Alverca
1.21
总 xG
2.10
Santa Clara
0.89
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Alverca | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.65倍) | −0.70 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.8球) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | +0.20 | |
| 最近5场中3场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.08 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.1 赛季平均) | −0.08 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球) | +0.02 | |
| Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira未进大名单 (2球, 4助攻) | ||
| Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui替补席 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 36%进球产出缺失 (仅65%可用) | ||
| 16%进球产出缺失 (仅78%可用) | ||
| 主场表现强势 (场均1.4球 vs 总体1.1球) |
关键因素
- Alverca averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Santa Clara arrives with stable form, while mathematical analysis gives the home team a 42% win probability
- The historical rate of 100% BTTS in past home matches suggests an open game
风险
- Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira, Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui missing, only 66% of goal threat available
- Low offensive threat with both teams averaging under 3.5 shots on target per match recently
全部概率
赛果
Alverca42%
平局33%
Santa Clara25%
进球
大于 1.564%
小于 1.536%
大于 2.535%
小于 2.565%
大于 3.516%
小于 3.584%
双重机会
Alverca或平局75%
Santa Clara或平局58%
非平局67%
双方均进球
是43%
否57%
最可能的比分
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
13%
0:1
9%
2:0
9%
首发阵容
Alverca 3-4-2-1 · Santa Clara 4-2-3-1
Alverca
- 31 Matheus Mendes
- 14 S. Baseya
- 4 Y. Bojang
- 12 I. James
- 2 N. Zoubdi Touaizi
- 25 I. Baroni Boetto
- 35 R. Marques de Souza
- 55 F. Chissumba Rodrigues
- 7 A. Cunha Vidigal
- 22 L. Figueiredo dos Santos
- 9 V. Semedo Moura Sousa
Santa Clara
- 1 L. Oliveira de França
- 2 D. Dos Santos Cabral
- 4 P. Pacheco Seabra
- 21 E. Moreira Fernandes
- 5 G. Romão
- 6 P. Ferreira
- 8 J. Rocha Tavares
- 99 L. de Castro
- 20 T. Hora Ribeiro
- 70 V. Lopes da Silva
- 9 G. Mendes Paciencia
替补
- 27 T. Tamarit Tamarit
- 17 S. Merheg Enciso
- 20 D. Spencer Marques
- 21 S. Gómez Solà
- 6 D. Gui
- 11 C. Nuozzi
- 8 V. Silva Moreira
- 93 J. Vivian
- 18 Z. Kessary
- 15 I. de La Caridad Caldeira dos Santos
- 91 J. da Siqueira
- 19 M. Essimi Ateba
- 11 W. dos Santos
- 12 H. Júnior
- 42 L. Soares de Almeida
- 10 B. Gonçalves Santos
- 7 L. Santos Oliveira
- 3 H. da Silva
- 17 J. Vasconcelos Faria Gonçalves
- 22 V. Amorim de Assis
- 18 A. Ferreira Duarte
- 73 L. Gomes da Silva Jacó
- 25 F. Medeiros Silva
- 81 S. Fofana
准备开始了吗？
创建账户，探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。
创建账户 →