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Liga Portugal

Casa Pia - Porto

09/12/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 4
预期进球
Casa Pia
0.9
Total xG
2.5
Porto
1.6
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

0:2

11%

1:2

9%

0:3

6%

2:1

5%
xG 分解
CPPOR

Casa Pia

防守实力 (场均失2球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
+0.70
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.68倍)
-0.49
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0球)
-0.27
状态下滑 (0 vs 0.9 赛季平均)
-0.27
小样本 (2场) - 均值回归
+0.24
排名劣势 (第18位 vs 第1位, 相差17位)
-0.16

Porto

小样本 (2场) - 均值回归
+0.32
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.33倍)
-0.16
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第18位, 相差17位)
+0.11
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
-0.02
全员可用
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

19%

平局

28%

客胜

53%

进球数

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

双重机会

主胜或平局

47%

客胜或平局

81%

非平局

72%

双方进球

49%

51%

关键因素
  • League form gap: Porto won all 5 matches, while Casa Pia are still without a win
  • Tactical dominance: Porto averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Casa Pia's 2.2
  • Offensive drought for Casa Pia: The hosts averaged 0.0 goals in their last 5 matches
风险因素
  • Critical squad impact for Porto: Only 17% of goal production is available
  • Heavy schedule for Porto: Only 4 days of rest since the last match against Manchester City
  • Weak home offense for Casa Pia: Average of only 0.9 goals scored per home game this season
概述

Casa Pia host Porto at the Estádio Pina Manique

Liga Portugal match on September 12, 2026, 5:00 PM

Clash between the bottom team (18th place, 1 point) and the league leaders (1st place, 15 points)

The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Porto with a 53% probability

近期状态

Casa Pia form: LLLLD

Porto form: WWWWL

Casa Pia are still searching for their first win after 4 losses and 1 draw

Porto lost their last match against Manchester City but won 4 consecutive league matches prior

统计数据

Casa Pia score an average of 0.91 goals per game and concede 1.68 goals

Porto average a strong 1.94 goals scored and concede just 0.53 goals

Casa Pia have not scored a single goal in the league this season

Porto have kept 21 clean sheets overall

历史交锋

4 head-to-head matches recorded

Porto won 3 times, while Casa Pia won 1 match

The last encounter on February 2, 2026, ended in a 2-1 home victory for Casa Pia

The overall goal difference is 8-2 in favor of Porto

关键球员

Benjamin Pauwels scored 1 goal in 2 matches for Casa Pia

Selvi Clua stabilizes the hosts' midfield with an average rating of 6.88

David Sousa is a key pillar in Casa Pia's defense with an average rating of 7.12

Gabri Veiga stands out for Porto with 3 goals and 2 assists this season

William Gomes also contributed 2 goals and 2 assists

Pepê provides offensive threat with 3 assists

门将

Ivan Mandić played one match for Casa Pia, holding a rating of 8.03

Diogo Costa guarded Porto's goal in 5 matches, with a rating of 6.99

Casa Pia kept 7 clean sheets overall, while Porto recorded 21 clean sheets

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass

The historical home record at the Estádio Pina Manique shows an average of 2.4 goals per game

Casa Pia scored an average of only 0.9 goals at home

Porto conceded an average of just 0.71 goals away from home this season

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