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Liga Portugal

Sporting Braga - Estoril

09/14/2026, 07:45 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Sporting Braga
1.9
Total xG
2.8
Estoril
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
xG 分解
SBEST

Sporting Braga

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.51倍)
+0.65
防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.35
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.22
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
状态下滑 (1.5 vs 1.9 赛季平均)
-0.13
排名优势 (第4位 vs 第17位, 相差13位)
+0.12
Fran Navarro替补席 (6球, 1助攻)
Vítor Carvalho替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
Mario Dorgeles替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
29%进球产出缺失 (仅80%可用)

Estoril

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.38倍)
-1.22
小样本 (2场) - 均值回归
+0.84
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.33
状态下滑 (0.5 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
-0.30
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第4位, 相差13位)
-0.14
客场表现不佳 (场均0.5球 vs 总体1.5球)
全员可用
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

59%

平局

25%

客胜

16%

进球数

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

双重机会

主胜或平局

84%

客胜或平局

41%

非平局

75%

双方进球

52%

48%

关键因素
  • Mathematical signal: The model forecasts a home win probability of 59%
  • Possession dominance: Sporting Braga controlled an average of 58.4% possession in recent matches
  • Away defensive weakness: Estoril concedes an average of 1.94 goals in away matches this season
风险因素
  • Squad gap in attack: Fran Navarro, Vítor Carvalho, and Mario Dorgeles are not in the lineup, leaving only 80% of the team's goal threat available
  • Reduced lineup strength: Estoril starting XI features only 67% of their usual team strength according to the dataset
  • Stuttering offensive efficiency: Braga's recent goal average of 1.5 goals per game is below their season average of 1.9
概述

Sporting Braga (8th place, 7 points) host Estoril (17th place, 2 points) at the Estádio Municipal de Braga

Liga Portugal match on September 14, 2026, 8:45 PM

The home side goes into the match as clear favorites

近期状态

Sporting Braga has a form of WDWWL (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)

Estoril shows a form of DLLLD (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)

Braga recently lost 1-2 away to Estrela Amadora

Estoril recorded a 0-0 draw against Arouca in their last outing

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Braga averages 1.88 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded per season

At home, Braga scored an average of 1.89 goals per match

Estoril concedes an average of 1.94 goals away from home while scoring 1.56

Estoril managed to keep only 3 clean sheets in away games this season

历史交锋

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in the database

The record is balanced with 1 win each and 2 draws

Braga holds a narrow 5-4 goal difference advantage

The last meeting on May 3, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

关键球员

Pau Víctor has scored 10 goals and provided 4 assists in 32 appearances

Gabri Martínez registered 1 goal and 3 assists so far this season

Yanis Begraoui has scored 2 goals in 5 games for Estoril

门将

Joel Robles made 5 season appearances for Estoril with an average rating of 6.74

Sporting Braga kept a total of 12 clean sheets overall this season

Estoril recorded 5 clean sheets in the current campaign

影响因素

The game will be played on grass at the Estádio Municipal de Braga

Braga concedes an average of only 1.00 goals per game in their home stadium

Historical venue stats show an average of 2.4 goals per match

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