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Liga Portugal

Nacional - Alverca

09/12/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 3
预期进球
Nacional
1.1
Total xG
2.3
Alverca
1.2
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

10%

1:0

10%

1:2

8%
xG 分解
NACALV

Nacional

小样本 (2场) - 均值回归
+0.16
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.2球)
+0.02
Léo Santos未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
Liziero未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
31%进球产出缺失 (仅68%可用)

Alverca

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.72倍)
-0.50
小样本 (2场) - 均值回归
+0.32
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.01
Vivaldo Semedo替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
34%进球产出缺失 (仅69%可用)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

33%

平局

32%

客胜

35%

进球数

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

双重机会

主胜或平局

65%

客胜或平局

67%

非平局

68%

双方进球

48%

52%

关键因素
  • Balanced model prediction: The probabilities for home win (33%), draw (32%), and away win (35%) are extremely close
  • Tactical focus: Nacional averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Defensive vulnerability of Alverca: The visitors conceded an average of 1.71 goals per away match this season
风险因素
  • Léo Santos and Liziero are missing for Nacional, leaving only 68% of the usual goal threat available
  • Vivaldo Semedo is missing for Alverca, leaving only 69% of their goal threat available
  • Low offensive output: Nacional averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match in recent games
概述

Nacional (11th place, 4 points) host Alverca (16th place, 2 points) at Estádio da Madeira

Liga Portugal match on September 12, 2026, 3:30 PM

A duel in the lower third of the standings

近期状态

Nacional has a form of DWLLL with 3 consecutive losses at the end

1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their form summary

Alverca shows a form of LDLDL and is still waiting for their first win

0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses for the visitors

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Nacional averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per season

At home, the hosts concede an average of 1.10 goals per match

Alverca has an away goal average of 1.00 while conceding 1.71 goals per game

The visitors recorded 19 matches this season where both teams scored

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 17 of Alverca's matches

历史交锋

Only 2 head-to-head matches played so far

Even record with 1 win for Nacional and 1 win for Alverca

Goal difference of 1:1 in these encounters

The last meeting on April 18, 2026, ended in a 1-0 home win for Nacional

关键球员

Daniel Jr has 1 assist and an average rating of 7.07

Ze Vitor scored 1 goal in 5 appearances with a rating of 6.96

Pablo Ruan stands at 1 goal this season and a rating of 6.83

Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira leads the visitors with 1 goal and a rating of 7.27

Figueiredo has 1 goal this season and a rating of 7.19

Isaac James has already contributed 2 assists this season

门将

Renato Marin starts in goal for Nacional with an average rating of 7.03

Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira guards the goal for Alverca with a rating of 6.67

Nacional recorded 8 clean sheets so far this season

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at Estádio da Madeira

Historically, this stadium averages 2.6 goals per game

Nacional has an even goal record of 23-23 at home

Alverca struggles away with 29 goals conceded

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