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Liga Portugal

Estoril - Casa Pia

09/20/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 2
预期进球
Estoril
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Casa Pia
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
ESTCP

Estoril

最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.2球)
-0.38
状态下滑 (0.2 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
-0.37
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.78倍)
-0.12
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
-0.02
全员可用

Casa Pia

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.52倍)
-0.68
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.37
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.2球)
-0.21
状态下滑 (0.2 vs 0.9 赛季平均)
-0.20
客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体0.9球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

36%

平局

32%

客胜

33%

进球数

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

双重机会

主胜或平局

67%

客胜或平局

64%

非平局

69%

双方进球

49%

51%

关键因素
  • Counter strategy: Both teams played a defensive, counter-oriented style with under 44% possession recently
  • Goal drought: Offenses have dried up recently with both teams averaging only 0.25 goals per game
  • High-pressure clash: The match between 17th and 18th place puts massive pressure on both winless teams
风险因素
  • Away leaks: Casa Pia concedes a high average of 2.21 goals in away games
  • Low offensive output: Casa Pia averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match recently
  • Winless home streak: Estoril is struggling to break their negative trend of LLLDL
概述

Bottom-of-the-table clash in Liga Portugal

Estoril (17th, 2 points) hosts Casa Pia (18th, 1 point)

Match on September 20, 2026, 6:00 PM

The model predicts a tight 1.20 to 1.14 with a 36% home win probability

近期状态

Both teams share an identical form curve of LLLDL

Estoril has 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses recently

Casa Pia also stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

Both sides suffered a defeat in their last match

统计数据

Estoril scores a season average of 1.59 goals per game

Casa Pia averages 0.91 goals scored per match

Estoril concedes an average of 1.44 goals at home

Casa Pia concedes an average of 2.21 goals away

历史交锋

Balanced record after 4 head-to-head games

Each side won 1 match alongside 2 draws

The last clash ended in a 0-0 draw on March 7, 2026

Overall goal difference remains level at 5-5

关键球员

Yanis Begraoui scored 2 goals in 6 matches with a 6.93 rating

Ismael Sierra solidifies the defense with a 6.99 rating

Jordan Holsgrove commands the midfield with a 7.17 rating

Henrique Araújo scored 1 goal with a rating of 6.55

Selvi Clua anchors the midfield with a 7.02 rating

David Sousa registers a defensive rating of 6.97

门将

Joel Robles started 6 matches in goal for Estoril this season

Ivan Mandić made 2 appearances for Casa Pia so far

Estoril has kept 5 clean sheets in the current campaign

Casa Pia managed 7 clean sheets over the season

影响因素

The game will be on natural grass at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

The venue average is a low 1.8 goals per match

Both teams scored in only 40% of the last 5 games here

Over 2.5 goals occurred in only 20% of recent games

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