🇵🇹

Liga Portugal

Nacional - Famalicão

09/19/2026, 02:30 PM

0 : 4
预期进球
Nacional
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Famalicão
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

0:1

9%

1:2

8%

1:0

8%
xG 分解
NACFAM

Nacional

小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.32
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.04
Léo Santos未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
Liziero未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
44%进球产出缺失 (仅36%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.5球 vs 总体1.1球)

Famalicão

防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.39
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.16
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
-0.10
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
-0.08
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

31%

平局

30%

客胜

38%

进球数

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

双重机会

主胜或平局

62%

客胜或平局

69%

非平局

70%

双方进球

52%

48%

关键因素
  • Only 37% of goals share available without Léo Santos and Liziero
  • Famalicão recently averaged 2.8 shots on target
  • The mathematical model predicts a slight away trend with a 38% win probability for Famalicão
风险因素
  • Nacional recently averaged only 2.6 shots on target per match
  • The recent form curve shows a negative trend for both teams
  • Nacional's goal production is currently stalling with an average of 1.0 goals
概述

Nacional (15th place, 4 points) faces Famalicão (13th place, 4 points)

Liga Portugal match on September 19, 2026, 3:30 PM at Estádio da Madeira

Both teams fight for crucial points in the lower tier of the table

近期状态

Nacional shows a weak form curve with a record of WLLLL

The home team recently suffered four consecutive losses

Famalicão has drawn three matches in a row with a record of LLDDD

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Nacional scored an average of 1.09 goals and conceded 1.32 in 34 season matches

Famalicão averaged 1.24 goals and conceded 0.85 in 34 matches

Nacional kept 8 clean sheets, while Famalicão recorded 17 clean sheets

At home, Nacional conceded an average of 1.10 goals per match

历史交锋

In 4 head-to-head matches there was 1 home win, 2 away wins and 1 draw

Famalicão leads the historical record with 3 goals to 2

The last meeting ended in a 1-0 win for Famalicão

关键球员

Ze Vitor stabilizes Nacional's defense with a rating of 6.94

Miguel Baeza brings attacking threat to the host's midfield with one season goal

For Famalicão, Sorriso stands out in attack with an average rating of 7.02

Finn van Breemen has already scored one season goal as a defender with a 6.95 rating

Georgios Koutsias is the guests' most dangerous forward with 3 goals in 6 matches

门将

Renato Marin guards Nacional's goal with an average rating of 6.94

Lazar Carević starts in goal for Famalicão with a rating of 6.52

Nacional recorded 8 clean sheets so far this season

Famalicão has already kept 17 clean sheets this season

影响因素

The match takes place at the Estádio da Madeira on natural grass

The historical goal rate at this stadium averages 3.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the previous home matches

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。