🇵🇹

Liga Portugal

Porto - Benfica

09/20/2026, 07:30 PM

3 : 1
预期进球
Porto
1.3
Total xG
3.0
Benfica
1.6
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
PORBEN

Porto

防守实力 (场均失0.6球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.70
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.60
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.43倍)
-0.58
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.09
主场表现强势 (场均2.8球 vs 总体1.9球)
全员可用

Benfica

防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.58
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.24
最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均2.8球)
+0.16
状态上升 (2.8 vs 2.3 赛季平均)
+0.16
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.24倍)
-0.05
Leandro Barreiro替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

30%

平局

27%

客胜

43%

进球数

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

双重机会

主胜或平局

57%

客胜或平局

70%

非平局

73%

双方进球

61%

39%

关键因素
  • Extreme Squad Impact: Porto currently plays with reduced efficiency as only 23% of their usual goal production is available
  • Benfica's attacking trend: The visitors scored an average of 2.8 goals in recent matches, which is higher than their season average of 2.3
  • Mathematical prediction: The calculation model favors Benfica with a 43% chance of securing an away win
风险因素
  • Shorter recovery time: Benfica had only 4 days of rest since their last match compared to Porto's 8 days of recovery
  • Defensive strain: The calculated BTTS probability is high at 61%
  • Limited data availability for weather conditions
概述

Top clash in Liga Portugal on September 20, 2026, 8:30 PM

League leaders Porto (1st place, 18 points) host rivals Benfica (2nd place, 16 points) at the Estádio Do Dragão

A crucial battle for the top spot of the table

近期状态

Porto displays strong momentum with WWWLW and 4 wins in their last 5 matches

Benfica arrives with a flawless WWWWW record and a running streak of 5 consecutive wins

Both sides show a highly positive and stable form trend

统计数据

Porto scores an average of 1.94 goals per match and concedes only 0.35 goals at home

Benfica counters with a powerful offense averaging 2.18 goals per game

Porto saw 19 over 2.5 goals matches this season, while Benfica recorded 24

历史交锋

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Porto did not record a single home victory

Benfica secured 2 wins, with 2 matches ending in a draw

The most recent meeting on March 8, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw

关键球员

For Porto, Gabri Veiga (3 goals, 3 assists) and William Gomes (2 goals, 2 assists) lead the attacking stats

Jan Bednarek secures the defensive line with a high seasonal rating

Benfica relies on Gianluca Prestianni with 5 goals and Vangelis Pavlidis with 8 goals, alongside defender Clément Lenglet

门将

Porto counts on goalkeeper Diogo Costa with a 6.98 rating and 21 clean sheets this season

Benfica is protected by Samuel Soares with a 6.76 rating and 14 clean sheets in total

影响因素

The game will be played on natural grass at the Estádio Do Dragão

Porto benefits from an exceptionally stable home defense of only 0.35 conceded goals per game

The stadium averages 2.0 total goals per match

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。