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Moreirense – Gil Vicente0 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Moreirense
1.18
总 xG
2.54
Gil Vicente
1.36
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Moreirense | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.69倍) | −0.28 | |
| 小样本 (2场) - 均值回归 | +0.22 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.19 | |
| 状态下滑 (1 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | −0.13 | |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.78倍) | −0.10 | |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | −0.03 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球) | +0.01 | |
| Alexandre Parsemain未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均0.7球 vs 总体1.4球) | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Squad impact: Only 11% of the seasonal goal threat is currently available for Gil Vicente
- Tactical setup: Moreirense recently played highly counter-oriented, averaging just 33% possession
- Model prediction: The model gives Gil Vicente a slight advantage with a 39% win probability
风险
- Moreirense averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- Gil Vicente's goal production has stalled, averaging 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.4
全部概率
赛果
Moreirense31%
平局30%
Gil Vicente39%
进球
大于 1.574%
小于 1.526%
大于 2.547%
小于 2.553%
大于 3.525%
小于 3.575%
双重机会
Moreirense或平局61%
Gil Vicente或平局69%
非平局70%
双方均进球
是53%
否47%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
0:1
最终比分
首发阵容
Moreirense 4-2-3-1 · Gil Vicente 4-2-3-1
Moreirense
- 13 A. Ribeiro Ferreira
- 76 D. Casals Namura Borges Pinto
- 66 G. Dambi Batista
- 26 J. de Brito Gonzaga
- 27 F. Teixeira Domingues
- 23 N. John
- 65 G. Liberato Tomas Aquino
- 10 F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
- 7 M. Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 19 T. Pinto Andrade
- 79 L. Vonić
Gil Vicente
- 30 L. Galdino de Azevedo
- 47 R. Sousa Esgaio
- 4 M. Elimbi Gilbert
- 39 J. Buatu Mananga
- 45 D. Madeira Moreira
- 12 A. Sejr Lausen
- 86 D. Ferreira Prioste
- 77 M. De Souza Costa
- 10 S. Garcia Gonzalez
- 20 G. Pinto Martins
- 23 H. Hernández Marrero
替补
- 20 J. Fins Veloso
- 2 L. Sousa Santos
- 8 M. Stjepanovic
- 17 ?. Martínez Navarro
- 11 L. Costa Araujo
- 99 Y. Farias de Sousa
- 21 R. Alonso Martín
- 4 K. Monteiro de Souza
- 32 J. da Silva Marques
- 1 W. Ferreira dos Santos
- 28 S. Chipyoka
- 12 F. Barbosa
- 17 S. Bermejo Lillo
- 27 A. Moreira Morales
- 32 M. Fernández Benítez
- 3 A. Espigares Morillas
- 82 G. Maia Pereira
- 11 J. Mango Fernandes
- 7 T. Chabrol Touré
- 2 J. Silva
- 94 S. Portugal Lima
- 19 G. Henrique Bernardineli Gomes
- 9 W. dos Santos França
- 99 M. Kaba
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