比赛报告 →
Marítimo – Porto1 : 2
模型为何这样判断
Marítimo
0.99
总 xG
2.65
Porto
1.66
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Marítimo | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.68倍) | −0.49 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.7球 vs 联赛平均1.3球) | +0.41 | |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | +0.29 | |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | +0.20 | |
| 最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.4球) | +0.14 | |
| 状态上升 (2.4 vs 1.9 赛季平均) | +0.14 | |
| 排名劣势 (第11位 vs 第1位, 相差10位) | −0.11 | |
| 排名优势 (第1位 vs 第11位, 相差10位) | +0.08 | |
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.5倍) | −0.06 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球) | −0.04 | |
| Gabri Veiga替补席 (4球, 3助攻) | ||
| Pablo Rosario替补席 (0球, 2助攻) | ||
| 23%进球产出缺失 (仅72%可用) |
关键因素
- Matchup advantage: Porto lead the table with 7 wins from 7 matches, with the model calculating a 51% away win probability
- Form gap: Porto averaged 2.4 goals scored recently while Marítimo conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match
- Tactical edge: Porto averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches compared to 2.8 for Marítimo
风险
- Squad impact: Porto start without Gabri Veiga and Pablo Rosario, leaving only 72% of usual active goal threat available
- Match break: Both teams face a long break since their last match with 21 days for Marítimo and 20 days for Porto
- Defensive variance: Porto conceded an average of 1.0 goal in recent matches compared to 0.53 across the season
全部概率
赛果
Marítimo21%
平局27%
Porto51%
进球
大于 1.576%
小于 1.524%
大于 2.549%
小于 2.551%
大于 3.527%
小于 3.573%
双重机会
Marítimo或平局49%
Porto或平局79%
非平局73%
双方均进球
是52%
否48%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
0:2
10%
1:2
10%
2:1
6%
0:3
5%
首发阵容
Marítimo 4-2-3-1 · Porto 4-3-3
Marítimo
- 30 F. Barbosa Vieites
- 2 I. de Carvalho Julião
- 44 R. Rodrigues Correia
- 22 G. Szalai
- 23 P. Rodrigues Cabral
- 21 I. Alani
- 14 R. Guzzo
- 15 T. Tavares
- 8 M. Dominguez
- 10 M. Tejón Fauli
- 17 A. Butzke Benavides
Porto
- 99 D. Meireles Costa
- 20 A. Costa
- 5 J. Bednarek
- 4 J. Kiwior
- 74 F. Moura
- 8 V. Froholdt
- 22 A. Varela
- 16 I. Hwang
- 7 W. Gomes Carvalho Santos
- 19 A. Valente Silva
- 11 E. Aquino Cossa
替补
- 4 R. Gomes Fernandes
- 3 N. Ogbeta
- 12 M. Bassouamina
- 35 B. Limbombe
- 13 A. Pastor Vacas
- 6 R. Rodrigues Andrade
- 18 V. Danilović
- 11 M. Diouri
- 1 J. Macedo Tabuaco
- 27 S. Bamba
- 90 M. Boakye
- 66 I. Ayuma
- 42 S. Fofana
- 9 S. Omorodion Aghehowa
- 13 P. Rosario
- 52 M. Moreira Moutinho Fernandes
- 17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
- 10 G. Veiga Novas
- 77 O. Pietuszewski
- 14 C. Morais Ramos
- 29 S. Giménez
- 33 J. de Souza Menezes
- 6 C. Smalling
- 37 G. Ferreira de Carvalho
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