比赛报告 →
Casa Pia – Santa Clara0 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Casa Pia
0.94
总 xG
2.38
Santa Clara
1.44
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Casa Pia | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | +0.31 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | −0.24 | |
| 状态上升 (2 vs 1.2 赛季平均) | +0.23 | |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | +0.16 | |
| 最近5场中3场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第4位, 相差13位) | −0.14 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球) | +0.11 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球) | −0.10 | |
| 排名优势 (第4位 vs 第17位, 相差13位) | +0.09 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.8 vs 0.9 赛季平均) | −0.06 | |
| 全员可用 | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Form gap: Santa Clara are unbeaten in 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws) while Casa Pia sit in 17th place
- Offensive trend: Santa Clara recently averaged 2.0 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.2
- Head-to-head record: Santa Clara are unbeaten in 4 meetings (3 wins, 1 draw) and favored by the model
风险
- Low shot volume: Santa Clara averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Home goal struggle: Casa Pia averaged only 0.9 goals per home match
- Limited attacking threats: Casa Pia averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
全部概率
赛果
Casa Pia23%
平局30%
Santa Clara47%
进球
大于 1.570%
小于 1.530%
大于 2.542%
小于 2.558%
大于 3.522%
小于 3.578%
双重机会
Casa Pia或平局53%
Santa Clara或平局77%
非平局70%
双方均进球
是48%
否52%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
0:1
12%
0:0
11%
0:2
10%
1:2
9%
首发阵容
Casa Pia 4-2-3-1 · Santa Clara 4-3-3
Casa Pia
- 95 I. Mandić
- 18 A. Geraldes de Barros
- 3 D. Bandeira
- 43 David Sousa
- 75 P. Silva Rosas
- 16 S. Clua Oya
- 80 L. Ofori
- 11 M. El Boukammiri
- 70 J. Seno Luis Rêgo
- 77 B. Pauwels
- 9 H. Pereira Araújo
Santa Clara
- 1 L. Oliveira de França
- 42 L. Soares de Almeida
- 4 P. Pacheco Seabra
- 21 E. Moreira Fernandes
- 5 G. Romão
- 8 J. Rocha Tavares
- 6 P. Ferreira
- 20 T. Hora Ribeiro
- 70 V. Lopes da Silva
- 9 G. Mendes Paciencia
- 10 B. Gonçalves Santos
替补
- 20 A. Jatta
- 1 P. Sequeira Mejías
- 4 J. Goulart Silva
- 19 K. Prieto Machado
- 24 S. Pérez Cardona
- 90 C. Dias Moreira
- 10 D. Costa Rocha
- 98 J. de Paula Morais
- 8 M. Ferreira Pereira
- 21 A. Zouin
- 17 E. Maurin
- 44 F. da Silva
- 11 W. dos Santos
- 12 H. Júnior
- 7 L. Santos Oliveira
- 3 H. da Silva
- 80 T. Ribeiro Duarte
- 19 Y. Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 17 J. Vasconcelos Faria Gonçalves
- 22 V. Amorim de Assis
- 41 D. Borges da Silva
- 99 L. de Castro
- 73 L. Gomes da Silva Jacó
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