比赛报告 →
Sporting Braga – Sporting CP1 : 3
模型为何这样判断
Sporting Braga
1.28
总 xG
2.50
Sporting CP
1.22
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Sporting Braga | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.6倍) | −0.88 | |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | +0.68 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | −0.51 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.3球) | −0.37 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球) | −0.28 | |
| 状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.9 赛季平均) | −0.20 | |
| 最近5场中3场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 小样本 (2场) - 均值回归 | −0.10 | |
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.73倍) | +0.06 | |
| 最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.4球) | −0.02 | |
| Demir Ege Tıknaz替补席 (0球, 2助攻) | ||
| 25%进球产出缺失 (仅87%可用) | ||
| Luis Suárez替补席 (6球, 1助攻) | ||
| Flávio Gonçalves替补席 (3球, 1助攻) | ||
| Maxi Araújo替补席 (1球, 2助攻) | ||
| Rodrigo Zalazar替补席 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 60%进球产出缺失 (仅57%可用) |
关键因素
- Huge squad blow for Sporting CP with only 57% of their usual goal-scoring threat available
- Braga's goal production has slowed down averaging 1.25 goals recently compared to their 1.92 season average
- Sporting CP averaged a strong 5.6 shots on target in recent matches
风险
- Sporting CP miss key offensive players Luis Suárez, Flávio Gonçalves, Maxi Araújo, and Rodrigo Zalazar
- Defender Z. Debast is suspended for Sporting CP due to a red card
- Sporting Braga averaged only 4.4 shots on target in recent matches showing decreased offensive efficiency
全部概率
赛果
Sporting Braga36%
平局30%
Sporting CP33%
进球
大于 1.573%
小于 1.527%
大于 2.546%
小于 2.554%
大于 3.524%
小于 3.576%
双重机会
Sporting Braga或平局67%
Sporting CP或平局64%
非平局70%
双方均进球
是53%
否47%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
1:3
最终比分
首发阵容
Sporting Braga 3-4-2-1 · Sporting CP 4-3-3
Sporting Braga
- 31 B. Parise Fontes
- 22 S. Barcia Laranxeira
- 6 V. Carvalho Vieira
- 44 A. Bajrami
- 2 V. Gómez Perea
- 29 G. Baptiste
- 8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
- 11 G. Silva Vieira
- 23 D. Huseinbasic
- 21 R. Horta
- 10 Pau Victor
Sporting CP
- 1 R. Dantas da Silva
- 22 I. Fresneda Corraliza
- 72 E. Quaresma Coimbra Simões
- 25 G. Inácio
- 13 G. Vagiannidis
- 4 S. Andersen
- 5 S. Altimira Clavell
- 77 I. Doumbia
- 10 G. Cipriano Catamo
- 7 F. Ioannidis
- 19 N. Irankunda
替补
- 19 J. Older Wind
- 17 J. Milošević
- 14 G. Lagerbielke
- 50 D. Oliveira Rodrigues
- 20 M. Dorgeles
- 77 G. Martínez Aguilera
- 26 B. Arrey-Mbi
- 9 F. Navarro Aliaga
- 34 D. Tıknaz
- 16 T. Marqués Morera
- 7 D. Martins Travassos
- 78 J. Gonçalo Carapinha
- 97 L. Suárez Charris
- 20 M. Araújo Vilches
- 31 L. Lira dos Santos
- 8 J. Arnauth Barrocas Simões
- 17 R. Zalazar Martínez
- 58 F. Gonçalves
- 73 E. Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicíssimo
- 9 R. Nel
- 21 P. Lima Barros
- 55 I. Ba
- 30 K. Pereira Azarias
- 28 J. Derry
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