比赛报告 →
Famalicão – Alverca1 : 4
模型为何这样判断
Famalicão
1.09
总 xG
2.32
Alverca
1.23
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Famalicão | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.53倍) | −0.47 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.3球) | −0.31 | |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | +0.28 | |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | +0.26 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | +0.18 | |
| 状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | +0.10 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | +0.09 | |
| 状态上升 (1.4 vs 1.1 赛季平均) | +0.09 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | −0.01 | |
| Vivaldo Semedo替补席 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Critical squad impact: Famalicão only have 19% of their usual goal threat available
- Form trend advantage: Alverca come off 2 consecutive wins while Famalicão previously recorded 3 draws in a row
- Model prediction: The mathematical model calculates a slight edge for Alverca with a 38% win probability
风险
- Away defensive weakness: Alverca conceded an average of 1.71 goals per away match this season
- Low threat creation: Famalicão averaged only 3.4 shots on target per game over their last 5 matches
全部概率
赛果
Famalicão31%
平局32%
Alverca37%
进球
大于 1.569%
小于 1.531%
大于 2.541%
小于 2.559%
大于 3.521%
小于 3.580%
双重机会
Famalicão或平局63%
Alverca或平局69%
非平局68%
双方均进球
是49%
否51%
最可能的比分
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
10%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
1:4
最终比分
首发阵容
Famalicão 4-2-3-1 · Alverca 3-4-3
Famalicão
- 25 L. Carević
- 17 R. Pinheiro Ferreira
- 36 M. Mattara Colombo
- 15 V. Rofino Gordo
- 28 P. Bondo Francisco
- 8 M. Peña Ocaña
- 21 T. Szücs
- 23 G. Bastião Dias
- 14 M. De Amorim
- 7 M. Lopes Moura
- 70 G. Koutsias
Alverca
- 31 Matheus Mendes
- 14 S. Baseya
- 21 S. Gómez Solà
- 12 I. James
- 20 D. Spencer Marques
- 35 R. Marques de Souza
- 6 D. Gui
- 55 F. Chissumba Rodrigues
- 10 Chiquinho
- 19 D. Camara Sankharé
- 22 L. Figueiredo dos Santos
替补
- 4 F. van Breemen
- 24 M. Jangeal
- 19 P. Valente Moreira
- 1 I. Zlobin
- 2 G. García dos Santos
- 3 L. Realpe Montaño
- 6 T. van de Looi
- 9 U. Abubakar
- 10 P. Costa Santos
- 30 V. Serafimović
- 33 P. Salas
- 22 G. Cabral da Cruz
- 27 T. Tamarit Tamarit
- 7 A. Cunha Vidigal
- 9 V. Semedo Moura Sousa
- 17 S. Merheg Enciso
- 4 Y. Bojang
- 2 N. Zoubdi Touaizi
- 11 C. Nuozzi
- 8 V. Silva Moreira
- 26 M. França de Oliveira
- 93 J. Vivian
- 91 J. da Siqueira
- 24 E. Jemide
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