比赛报告 →
Arouca – Estrela Amadora1 : 0
模型为何这样判断
Arouca
1.36
总 xG
2.76
Estrela Amadora
1.40
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Arouca | Estrela Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| 防守实力 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.3球) | +0.51 | |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | −0.23 | |
| 最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2球) | +0.17 | |
| 状态上升 (2 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | +0.17 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球) | −0.14 | |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | −0.01 | |
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Balanced model prediction: Mathematical model gives Estrela Amadora a 37% win chance and Arouca 35%
- Offensive trend: Estrela Amadora currently scores more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.4)
- Tactical metric: Estrela Amadora averaged 14.6 shots total and 4.2 shots on target in recent matches
风险
- Squad impact: Only 37% of seasonal goal threat is currently available for Estrela Amadora
- Defensive vulnerability: Estrela Amadora concedes 2.13 goals per away match
- Match gap: Both teams have not played a competitive match in over 20 days
全部概率
赛果
Arouca35%
平局29%
Estrela Amadora37%
进球
大于 1.578%
小于 1.522%
大于 2.552%
小于 2.548%
大于 3.530%
小于 3.570%
双重机会
Arouca或平局63%
Estrela Amadora或平局65%
非平局71%
双方均进球
是58%
否42%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
1:0
最终比分
首发阵容
Arouca 4-2-3-1 · Estrela Amadora 4-2-3-1
Arouca
- 12 I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
- 28 T. Sousa Esgaio
- 15 J. Sánchez de Felipe
- 3 J. Fontán Mondragón
- 18 O. Lebedenko
- 6 E. van Ee
- 8 T. Fukui
- 19 A. Trezza Hernández
- 10 P. Gozalbez Gilabert
- 7 N. Djouahra
- 17 I. Martínez Gonzálvez
Estrela Amadora
- 24 L. Baiersdorf Linck
- 21 M. Scholze
- 30 L. Wiedthauper
- 5 S. Leković
- 55 L. Soares Alves
- 78 S. Ferreira Serra
- 39 E. Doué
- 99 A. Marcus
- 14 L. Zvonarek
- 10 I. Stoica
- 37 L. Antonetti
替补
- 37 M. Climent Plá
- 9 F. Mayulu
- 20 G. Rukavina
- 2 L. Shahar
- 5 B. Popović
- 14 H. Lee
- 24 B. Mansilla
- 21 M. Flores Lozano
- 89 P. Carvalho Santos
- 4 D. Pinheiro Monteiro
- 23 D. Nandín Berrutti
- 1 J. Vinarčík
- 51 D. de Carvalho Pinto
- 4 B. Schappo
- 17 J. Silva Encada
- 79 A. Atanasov Chernev
- 80 A. Souza de Jesus
- 6 K. Höög-Jansson
- 28 T. Moustier
- 49 R. Mitongo Muteba
- 3 L. Mincarelli Davin
- 72 H.Poniewas
- 93 B. Loussakou Souza
- 71 E. Pedro Vanga
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