比赛报告 →
Benfica – Vitória Guimarães2 : 0
模型为何这样判断
Benfica
2.02
总 xG
3.09
Vitória Guimarães
1.07
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Benfica | Vitória Guimarães |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的2.27倍) | +1.72 | |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | −1.07 | |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | +0.75 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失0.9球 vs 联赛平均1.3球) | −0.38 | |
| 最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球) | −0.17 | |
| 最近5场中3场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.2 赛季平均) | −0.12 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | +0.12 | |
| 排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第4位, 相差10位) | −0.12 | |
| 最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.6球) | +0.10 | |
| 排名优势 (第4位 vs 第14位, 相差10位) | +0.10 | |
| 主场表现强势 (场均2.9球 vs 总体2.2球) | ||
| 全员可用 | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Low active goal share: Available players represent only 28% of Benfica's total goal production and 10% for Vitória Guimarães
- Away defensive vulnerability: Benfica's attack meets Vitória Guimarães conceding an average of 2.91 goals per away match
- Mathematical model indication: Benfica averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches, with the prediction model estimating a 58% home win
风险
- Vitória Guimarães concede an average of 2.91 goals per away match
- Vitória Guimarães recently managed only 0.8 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.2
全部概率
赛果
Benfica58%
平局24%
Vitória Guimarães18%
进球
大于 1.583%
小于 1.517%
大于 2.560%
小于 2.540%
大于 3.537%
小于 3.563%
双重机会
Benfica或平局82%
Vitória Guimarães或平局42%
非平局76%
双方均进球
是58%
否42%
最可能的比分
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
首发阵容
Benfica 4-2-3-1 · Vitória Guimarães 4-2-3-1
Benfica
- 24 S. Jumpe Soares
- 6 A. Hartmann Bah
- 3 A. Circati
- 44 T. Araújo
- 26 S. Dahl
- 18 L. Barreiro Martins
- 36 J. Lobo Alves Palhinha Gonçalves
- 27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
- 25 G. Prestianni Gross
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 14 V. Pavlidis
Vitória Guimarães
- 48 O. Zych
- 23 T. Strata
- 21 T. Borevković
- 28 T. Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho
- 13 João Mendes
- 44 L. Doucet
- 8 G. Teixeira Nogueira
- 17 J. Costa Nogueira
- 20 F. Amorim Silva
- 7 O. Camara
- 9 A. Jakupovic
替补
- 30 C. Echeverri
- 10 H. Sudakov
- 1 A. Trubin
- 62 J. Formoso Neto
- 11 D. Lukebakio
- 8 F. Aursnes
- 16 M. Silva
- 22 J. Durán Palacio
- 34 S. Elkarouani
- 88 T. Dias Freitas
- 72 A. Fernandes Reis Cabral
- 33 Gabriel Queiroz
- 19 V. Andersson
- 5 A. Sidibé
- 2 M. Gomes Ferreira Magalhães
- 6 M. Mitrovic
- 16 B. Mambuene Mukendi
- 18 T. Gomes Arcanjo
- 10 A. de Souza Guimarães
- 4 O. Rivas Viondi
- 82 F. Lagos Dias
- 98 L. Furtado dos Santos
- 29 V. Ouotro
- 56 S. Verdi Oliveira Silva
准备开始了吗？
创建账户，探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。
创建账户 →