比赛报告 →
Rio Ave – Nacional3 : 2
模型为何这样判断
Rio Ave
1.30
总 xG
2.58
Nacional
1.27
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Rio Ave | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| 防守不足 (场均失1.9球 vs 联赛平均1.3球) | +0.61 | |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | −0.48 | |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.63倍) | −0.32 | |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | +0.16 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球) | −0.15 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.6 vs 1.1 赛季平均) | −0.15 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | +0.07 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球) | −0.01 | |
| 50%进球产出缺失 (仅75%可用) | ||
| Léo Santos未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 58%进球产出缺失 (仅57%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均0.6球 vs 总体1.1球) |
关键因素
- Model projections indicate a tightly balanced match with 36% home win and 34% away win probability
- Form struggles on both sides as Rio Ave won once in five games (WLLDL) while Nacional lost five straight (LLLLL)
- Defensive vulnerabilities present with both teams conceding over 1.6 goals per game in their respective home/away splits
风险
- Squad impact for Nacional: Only 57% of goal threat available with Léo Santos missing from squad
- Nacional averaged only 2.6 shots on target per match in recent games
- Nacional concede an average of 1.69 goals per away match
全部概率
赛果
Rio Ave36%
平局30%
Nacional34%
进球
大于 1.574%
小于 1.526%
大于 2.548%
小于 2.552%
大于 3.526%
小于 3.574%
双重机会
Rio Ave或平局66%
Nacional或平局64%
非平局70%
双方均进球
是54%
否46%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
0:2
6%
3:2
最终比分
首发阵容
Rio Ave 4-2-3-1 · Nacional 4-2-3-1
Rio Ave
- 32 V. Batista Araujo de Mendonça
- 20 J. Esteves Baptista
- 5 A. Ntoi
- 39 G. Teixeira Lopes da Conceição
- 17 M. Vrousai
- 79 M. Almeida Patrício
- 54 G. Liavas
- 80 S. Clemmensen
- 19 M. Sellouki
- 7 D. Bezerra de Oliveira
- 11 J. Miller Blesa
Nacional
- 1 R. Bellucci Marin
- 88 Deivison Souza Brito
- 33 F. Baptista Gonçalves
- 38 J. Lima Cardoso
- 21 W. Kokolo
- 15 C. Abidi
- 31 D. Dongmo
- 10 D. de Melo Araujo Junior
- 20 M. Djaló
- 12 M. Song
- 29 N. Kader
替补
- 90 D. Santos Nascimento
- 77 D. Špikić
- 23 F. Petrasso
- 44 T. Nikitscher
- 24 P. Gaspar Amaral
- 27 T. Medina
- 8 R. da Silva Pae
- 9 T. Folgado Monteiro
- 99 E. van der Gouw
- 30 R. Galčík
- 60 C. Valença
- 70 A. Wenck
- 3 S. Garcia
- 7 M. Jensen
- 13 J. Oliveira Gonçalves
- 5 J. Mendes Gomes
- 26 J. Organista da Silva
- 99 P. Messias Cardozo
- 8 M. Baeza Pérez
- 17 F. Nava Ortega
- 14 I. Mendes Fernandes
- 11 S. Gavriel
- 2 D. de la Cruz
- 9 A. Obando
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