Ligue 1
Rennes - Paris Saint Germain
08/23/2026, 06:45 PM
预期进球
1.4
2.9
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:2
6%xG 分解
Rennes
Paris Saint Germain
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
32%
平局
28%
客胜
41%
进球数
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
双重机会
主胜或平局
59%
客胜或平局
68%
非平局
72%
双方进球
是
60%
否
40%
关键因素
- Restricted squad: Rennes has to cope without the unlisted Ludovic Blas, Quentin Merlin, Mahdi Camara, and Arnaud Nordin
- Offensive strength: Both teams averaged a strong 5.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Tight matchup: The mathematical model predicts a close match with 1.36 expected goals for Rennes against 1.56 for the visitors
风险因素
- Rennes has to compensate for the absence of 4 key players, reducing their starting XI strength to 80%
- Paris Saint Germain's goal production recently dropped to an average of 2.2 compared to their season average of 2.5
- Historical disadvantage for Rennes with 3 losses in their last 4 head-to-head matches against Paris
概述
Rennes faces Paris Saint Germain at Roazhon Park
Both teams start this Ligue 1 match with zero points
Match on August 23, 2026, 8:45 PM
Paris Saint Germain is favored with a calculated 41% win probability
近期状态
Rennes holds a form of WWLDW with 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches
The home team scores more frequently now with 2.5 goals compared to their 1.8 season average
Paris Saint Germain shows a form of WWWDD
The visitors' goal scoring has slowed down recently with 2.2 goals compared to a season average of 2.5
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
统计数据
Rennes scores an average of 1.74 goals and concedes 1.47 goals per game this season
At home, their defense is more stable, conceding an average of 1.00 goals
Paris Saint Germain scores an average of 2.18 goals and concedes only 0.85 goals per match
The visitors maintain a strong away scoring average of 2.20 goals
历史交锋
There have been 4 head-to-head matches between the teams
Paris Saint Germain leads the history with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Rennes
The goal ratio is 5:13 from Rennes' perspective
The last match on February 13, 2026 ended in a 3-1 home win for Rennes
关键球员
Estéban Lepaul leads Rennes' attack with 20 season goals and 5 assists
Valentin Rongier shows rising form with an average rating of 7.77 in recent matches
Ousmane Dembélé is highly dangerous for Paris Saint Germain with 10 goals and 7 assists
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia contributed 8 goals and shows a rising form trend
门将
Brice Samba kept goal 32 times for Rennes this season with an average rating of 6.84
Rennes recorded a total of 10 clean sheets, with 4 of them coming at home
Matvey Safonov played 15 matches in goal for Paris Saint Germain with a season average of 7.01
The visitors achieved 18 clean sheets this season, including 7 in away games
影响因素
Rennes relies on a solid home record, scoring an average of 1.76 goals at Roazhon Park
The historical venue statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per game at this stadium
The match will be played on a classic grass surface
Paris Saint Germain shows high efficiency away from home with an average of 2.20 goals per away match