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Monaco – Olympique Marseille2 : 0
模型为何这样判断
Monaco
1.40
总 xG
2.90
Olympique Marseille
1.50
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Monaco | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.1球) | +0.56 | +0.56 |
| 最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.4球) | +0.16 | |
| 状态上升 (2.4 vs 1.9 赛季平均) | +0.16 | |
| 最近5场中3场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球) | −0.09 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | −0.03 | |
| 28%进球产出缺失 (仅78%可用) | ||
| Mason Greenwood未进大名单 (16球, 7助攻) | ||
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang未进大名单 (10球, 5助攻) | ||
| Igor Paixão未进大名单 (6球, 5助攻) | ||
| Benjamin Pavard未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻) | ||
| 47%进球产出缺失 (仅52%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.5球 vs 总体1.9球) |
关键因素
- Critical squad impact: Only 52% of goals share available for Olympique Marseille without Mason Greenwood, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Igor Paixão, Benjamin Pavard
- Form advantage: Monaco enters the match with an active streak of 5 consecutive wins
- Offensive trend: Monaco scores more frequently recently (2.4 goals on average) compared to their season average (1.9 goals)
风险
- Fatigue: Monaco enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Away weakness: Olympique Marseille concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away game
- Offensive slump: Olympique Marseille's goal production is stalling recently, averaging 1.6 goals compared to their season average of 1.9
全部概率
赛果
Monaco34%
平局28%
Olympique Marseille38%
进球
大于 1.580%
小于 1.520%
大于 2.555%
小于 2.545%
大于 3.533%
小于 3.567%
双重机会
Monaco或平局62%
Olympique Marseille或平局66%
非平局72%
双方均进球
是60%
否40%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
2:0
最终比分
首发阵容
Monaco 4-2-3-1 · Olympique Marseille 4-2-3-1
Monaco
- 1 L. Hradecký
- 2 V. de Oliveira Campos
- 72 S. Sané
- 15 E. Dier
- 20 F. Jacinto Nazinho
- 8 L. Camara
- 6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
- 28 M. Coulibaly
- 10 A. Golovin
- 17 S. Idumbo Muzambo
- 29 P. Brunner
Olympique Marseille
- 12 J. de Lange
- 22 T. Weah
- 4 C. Egan Riley
- 19 G. Kondogbia
- 33 E. Palmieri dos Santos
- 8 H. Abdelli
- 23 P. Højbjerg
- 77 A. Harit
- 7 A. Gomes
- 27 Q. Timber
- 9 A. Gouiri
替补
- 11 M. Abline
- 14 M. Bieveth
- 16 P. Köhn
- 5 T. Kehrer
- 13 C. Mawissa Elebi
- 4 J. Teze
- 7 M. Detourbet
- 46 A. Soubeir
- 47 S. Benzahra
- 25 U. Garcia Lopes
- 11 N. Maupay
- 21 N. Aguerd
- 13 D. Cornelius
- 48 K. Hikram Abdallah
- 92 T. Vermot
- 43 T. Mmadi
- 29 F. Pemi Moumbagna
- 6 T. Nadi
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