比赛报告 →
Rennes – Le Mans3 : 2
模型为何这样判断
Rennes
1.51
总 xG
2.98
Le Mans
1.47
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Rennes | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.9球) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| 小样本 (0场) - 均值回归 | +0.31 | |
| 状态上升 (2.8 vs 1.8 赛季平均) | +0.28 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.2球) | +0.12 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.5球) | +0.09 | |
| Ludovic Blas替补席 (5球, 4助攻) | ||
| Mahdi Camara替补席 (3球, 1助攻) | ||
| Arnaud Nordin替补席 (1球, 3助攻) | ||
| 12%进球产出缺失 (仅90%可用) | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Offensive trend: Rennes currently score more frequently (averaging 2.8 goals per match) than their season average of 1.8
- Tactical dominance: Rennes recently averaged 56% possession and 5.8 shots on target per match
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis projects a highly balanced match with a 37% home win probability and a 36% away win probability
风险
- Away defensive weakness: Le Mans already conceded 2.0 goals on average in their first match of the season
- Goalkeeper absence: The injury of starting keeper B. Samba weakens the defensive stability of the hosts
- Limited data availability regarding head-to-head records and away squad player form
全部概率
赛果
Rennes37%
平局27%
Le Mans36%
进球
大于 1.581%
小于 1.519%
大于 2.557%
小于 2.543%
大于 3.535%
小于 3.565%
双重机会
Rennes或平局64%
Le Mans或平局63%
非平局73%
双方均进球
是61%
否39%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
3:2
最终比分
首发阵容
Rennes 4-3-3 · Le Mans 3-1-4-2
Rennes
- 16 N. Lemaître
- 95 P. Frankowski
- 4 C. Cresswell
- 48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
- 26 Q. Merlin
- 17 S. Szymański
- 21 V. Rongier
- 28 A. Thomasson
- 11 M. Al Tamari
- 9 E. Lepaul
- 90 I. Soumaré
Le Mans
- 98 N. Kocik
- 15 N. Boissé
- 21 T. Eyoum
- 5 H. Voyer
- 8 A. Lauray
- 18 L. Buadés
- 29 L. Bretelle
- 11 A. Bourabaa
- 22 L. Calodat
- 25 D. Guèye
- 14 L. Mafouta
替补
- 70 A. Nordin
- 24 A. Rouault
- 10 L. Blas
- 45 M. Camara
- 18 M. Nagida
- 12 E. Mayenda Dossou
- 65 H. Do Marcolino
- 60 K. Belazzoug
- 14 B. Reynolds
- 19 D. Sidibé
- 16 R. Torrente Navarro
- 7 B. Brahimi
- 23 D. Traoré
- 24 M. Robin
- 9 A. Rabillard
- 1 E. Hatfout
- 20 W. Harhouz
- 10 J. Vercruysse
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