比赛报告 →
Lorient – Troyes1 : 2
模型为何这样判断
Lorient
1.50
总 xG
2.81
Troyes
1.30
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Lorient | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.8球) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| 小样本 (0场) - 均值回归 | +0.23 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.18 | |
| 状态下滑 (1 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | −0.12 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.6球) | +0.01 | |
| Bamba Dieng未进大名单 (10球, 2助攻) | ||
| Bamo Meïté未进大名单 (0球, 3助攻) | ||
| Karim Dermane未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻) | ||
| 41%进球产出缺失 (仅64%可用) |
关键因素
- Home turf advantage: Lorient is strong on artificial turf with 5 wins out of 10 matches
- Tactical setup: Lorient recently averaged a counter-oriented style with 3.0 shots on target per match
- Troyes defensive approach: The visitors recorded just 2.0 shots on target with 41% possession in their last match
风险
- Bamba Dieng, Bamo Meïté, and Karim Dermane are missing, only 65% of the goal threat is available
- Lorient's goal production is stalling, averaging 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.4
- Limited dataset for away statistics of Troyes
全部概率
赛果
Lorient40%
平局28%
Troyes31%
进球
大于 1.579%
小于 1.521%
大于 2.553%
小于 2.547%
大于 3.531%
小于 3.569%
双重机会
Lorient或平局69%
Troyes或平局60%
非平局72%
双方均进球
是58%
否42%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
首发阵容
Lorient 3-4-2-1 · Troyes 4-2-3-1
Lorient
- 38 Y. Mvogo
- 20 D. Sylla
- 3 M. Talbi
- 32 N. Adjei
- 11 T. Le Bris
- 62 A. Ebong Avon
- 8 N. Cadiou
- 43 K. Kouassi
- 33 G. Bernardeau
- 17 J. Makengo
- 42 M. Koné
Troyes
- 33 P. Beach
- 2 L. Maronnier
- 6 A. Monfray
- 4 M. Diaz
- 3 A. Ouzenadji
- 17 A. Mille
- 8 M. Diop
- 10 M. Ifnaoui
- 11 I. Gomis
- 22 H. Picard
- 20 R. Ripart
替补
- 95 S. Toure
- 77 P. Katseris
- 15 T. Aiyegun
- 21 B. Kamara
- 19 S. Faye
- 10 I. Jensen
- 55 N. Obaretin
- 72 N. Mbamba
- 2 A. Georgen
- 29 K. Dermane
- 7 K. Diawara
- 40 Y. Konaté
- 5 P. Gozzi Iweru
- 26 A. Phliponeau
- 31 N. Donkor Znamensky
- 39 Y. Kone
- 37 C. Batola
- 36 I. Soukouna
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