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Ligue 1

Brest - Toulouse

08/29/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 2
预期进球
Brest
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Toulouse
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
BRETOU

Brest

最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球)
-0.01
Junior Dina Ebimbe未进大名单 (5球, 0助攻)
Brendan Chardonnet未进大名单 (1球, 3助攻)
Hugo Magnetti替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
13%进球产出缺失 (仅94%可用)

Toulouse

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.74倍)
-0.30
防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
+0.10
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.07
Santiago Hidalgo替补席 (4球, 6助攻)
Aron Dønnum未进大名单 (4球, 5助攻)
Djibril Sidibé未进大名单 (3球, 4助攻)
Pape Demba Diop未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻)
38%进球产出缺失 (仅54%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.4球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.8球)
+0.32
+0.32
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

38%

平局

31%

客胜

30%

进球数

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

双重机会

主胜或平局

70%

客胜或平局

62%

非平局

69%

双方进球

49%

51%

关键因素
  • Toulouse heavily weakened: Only 54% of their goals share is active, with Santiago Hidalgo, Aron Dønnum, Djibril Sidibé, and Pape Demba Diop missing
  • Toulouse's goal production is stalling, averaging 1.2 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.4
  • The mathematical prediction favors Brest with a 38% probability of a home win
风险因素
  • Brest averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Toulouse averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Brest will be without the unselected Junior Dina Ebimbe, Brendan Chardonnet, and Hugo Magnetti
概述

Brest (7th place, 1 point) host Toulouse (16th place, 0 points) at the Stade Francis-Le Ble

Ligue 1 match on August 29, 2026, 8:45 PM

Brest look for their first win of the season while Toulouse need to bounce back after an opening loss

近期状态

Brest form: WLLLD

Most recently they secured a 2-2 draw against Le Mans

Toulouse travel with a form of LWWLL and lost their last match 0-2 against Olympique Lyonnais

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Brest scored an average of 1.26 goals per game and conceded 1.62 last season

Toulouse averaged 1.42 goals scored and 1.39 goals conceded per match

Brest secured 7 of their total 9 clean sheets at home

历史交锋

Balanced record with 2 wins each in 4 head-to-head matches

The last encounter ended in a 2-0 away win for Toulouse on January 25, 2026

The goal difference in these meetings is tied at 6-6

关键球员

For the hosts, Ludovic Ajorque (8 goals, 9 assists), Romain Del Castillo (9 goals, 3 assists), and Kamory Doumbia (5 goals, 4 assists) are key

The visitors rely on Yann Gboho (8 goals, 5 assists), Cristian Cásseres Jr. (2 goals, 3 assists), and Alexis Vossah (1 goal, 1 assist)

门将

Egil Selvik starts in goal for Brest

Toulouse field Guillaume Restes, who made 33 appearances last season

Brest secured 9 clean sheets last season, while Toulouse also recorded 9 clean sheets

影响因素

Brest hold a clear home advantage, scoring 28 goals at home compared to just 15 away goals last season

Matches at Stade Francis-Le Ble have averaged 4.0 goals per game over the last 5 fixtures

The playing surface is natural grass

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