比赛报告 →
Strasbourg – Lens2 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Strasbourg
1.40
总 xG
2.63
Lens
1.23
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Strasbourg | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.28 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.7 赛季平均) | −0.28 | |
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.2倍) | −0.26 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.8球) | +0.21 | |
| 状态上升 (2.8 vs 2.1 赛季平均) | +0.21 | |
| 排名劣势 (第8位 vs 第2位, 相差6位) | −0.19 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.5球) | −0.19 | |
| 排名优势 (第2位 vs 第8位, 相差6位) | +0.04 | |
| Diego Moreira未进大名单 (4球, 7助攻) | ||
| Martial Godo未进大名单 (10球, 1助攻) | ||
| Julio Enciso未进大名单 (3球, 6助攻) | ||
| Guela Doué替补席 (2球, 6助攻) | ||
| Valentín Barco未进大名单 (2球, 4助攻) | ||
| Samir El Mourabet未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻) | ||
| Ben Chilwell未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻) | ||
| Ismaël Doukouré未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻) | ||
| Abdoul Ouattara未进大名单 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| 64%进球产出缺失 (仅24%可用) | ||
| Odsonne Édouard未进大名单 (12球, 3助攻) | ||
| Adrien Thomasson未进大名单 (3球, 10助攻) | ||
| Mamadou Sangaré未进大名单 (3球, 4助攻) | ||
| Saud Abdulhamid未进大名单 (2球, 4助攻) | ||
| 51%进球产出缺失 (仅47%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.6球 vs 总体2.1球) |
关键因素
- Squad limitations: Strasbourg has only 24% of its usual starting XI goal threat available due to injuries and selection
- Defensive pressure: Lens averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to Strasbourg's 2.8
- Absences for Lens: The visitors are also depleted with only 48% of their usual starting XI offensive strength available
风险
- Top scorer J. Panichelli is sidelined due to injury after scoring 16 goals in 27 appearances
- Strasbourg's goal production is faltering recently at just 0.8 goals per match compared to a season average of 1.7
- Lens' strong offense currently scores 2.8 goals per match, exceeding their season average of 2.1
全部概率
赛果
Strasbourg39%
平局29%
Lens31%
进球
大于 1.575%
小于 1.525%
大于 2.549%
小于 2.551%
大于 3.527%
小于 3.573%
双重机会
Strasbourg或平局69%
Lens或平局61%
非平局71%
双方均进球
是55%
否45%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
5%
首发阵容
Strasbourg 4-3-3 · Lens 3-4-2-1
Strasbourg
- 1 F. Jörgensen
- 16 G. Antwi
- 4 J. Mitchell
- 2 A. Omobamidele
- 24 L. Høgsberg
- 23 D. Lobão Sousa
- 21 P. Diop
- 10 G. Reyna
- 80 G. Yassine
- 30 J. Ortega Conde
- 11 S. Nanasi
Lens
- 40 R. Risser
- 3 M. Nawrocki
- 25 P. Ganiou
- 31 S. Sagnan
- 22 M. Skóraś
- 8 Y. Titraoui
- 27 M. Cuisance
- 14 M. Udol
- 10 F. Thauvin
- 29 F. Ivanović
- 19 A. Sima
替补
- 31 A. Coulibaly
- 19 F. Uri Baldé
- 14 S. Mara
- 17 M. Amougou
- 7 S. Amo-Ameyaw
- 12 M. Piekutowski
- 28 T. Noubissie
- 15 M. Del Blanco
- 45 B. Brantlind
- 7 F. Sotoca
- 5 A. Bulatović
- 4 N. Čelik
- 21 A. Haidara
- 18 R. Fofana
- 2 R. Aguilar
- 9 T. Hazard
- 16 M. Gorgelin
- 38 M.Soares
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