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Ligue 1

Toulouse - LOSC Lille

09/03/2026, 06:45 PM

0 : 1
预期进球
Toulouse
1.1
Total xG
2.2
LOSC Lille
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

11%

0:1

10%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
TOULL

Toulouse

防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.7球)
-0.28
排名劣势 (第10位 vs 第3位, 相差7位)
-0.19
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
+0.04
Yann Gboho未进大名单 (8球, 5助攻)
Aron Dønnum未进大名单 (4球, 5助攻)
Djibril Sidibé未进大名单 (3球, 4助攻)
Pape Demba Diop未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻)
58%进球产出缺失 (仅49%可用)

LOSC Lille

防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.13
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.08
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第10位, 相差7位)
+0.04
Félix Correia未进大名单 (4球, 5助攻)
Romain Perraud替补席 (3球, 4助攻)
Thomas Meunier未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3球)
+0.50
+0.50
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

36%

平局

33%

客胜

31%

进球数

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

双重机会

主胜或平局

69%

客胜或平局

64%

非平局

67%

双方进球

45%

55%

关键因素
  • Critical squad depletion: Toulouse is missing key starters Yann Gboho, Aron Dønnum, Djibril Sidibé, and Pape Demba Diop, leaving only 49% of their usual goal threat available
  • Offensive tactical advantage: Lille averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to Toulouse's average of only 3.0
  • Historical dominance: Lille won all of the last 4 head-to-head matches, including a comprehensive 4-0 away victory in their last visit to Toulouse
风险因素
  • Defensive vulnerability for Toulouse: The hosts conceded an average of 2.0 goals per match recently, which is higher than their season average of 1.39
  • Limited offensive threat: Toulouse averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match in recent games, restricting their scoring opportunities
概述

Toulouse (16th place, 1 point) host LOSC Lille (3rd place, 4 points) at the Stadium de Toulouse

Ligue 1 match on September 3, 2026, 8:45 PM

Lille enter as favorites while Toulouse desperately need points after a slow start

近期状态

Toulouse Form: WWLLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Lille Form: LWWWD

Lille shows positive form with 3 wins and 1 draw in recent games

Toulouse recorded a 2-2 draw against Brest in their last game after suffering two consecutive losses

统计数据

Toulouse averages 1.42 goals scored and 1.39 goals conceded per season

In home matches, Toulouse averages 1.39 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded

Lille averages 1.53 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded this season

Away from home, Lille averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded

历史交锋

4 head-to-head matches in recent years

Lille won all 4 encounters with a total goal difference of 10-3

The last direct duel ended in a 4-0 away win for Lille on April 12, 2026

关键球员

Rasmus Nicolaisen played 32 matches with 1 goal and shows a rising form trend (delta +0.26)

Cristian Cásseres Jr. contributed 2 goals and 3 assists in 30 season appearances with a rating of 7.09

Santiago Hidalgo recorded 4 goals and 6 assists across 28 appearances

Hákon Arnar Haraldsson scored 8 goals and provided 2 assists in 32 matches with a rating of 7.07

Olivier Giroud registered 7 goals and 1 assist in 30 games with an average rating of 6.82

Benjamin André played 27 matches contributing 2 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.15

门将

Guillaume Restes made 33 appearances with an average rating of 6.77 and recorded 9 clean sheets this season

Berke Özer played 32 matches with an average rating of 6.84 and kept 13 clean sheets

影响因素

Home advantage for Toulouse with an average of 1.39 goals scored in home matches

The Stadium de Toulouse has a historical average of 2.8 goals scored per game

Both teams scored in 40% of historical venue matches, with Over 2.5 goals occurring in 60% of games

Lille shows strong offensive presence on the road, averaging 1.56 away goals per match

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