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Ligue 1

Rennes - Olympique Marseille

09/11/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 0
预期进球
Rennes
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Olympique Marseille
1.2
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
xG 分解
RENOM

Rennes

状态上升 (2.8 vs 1.9 赛季平均)
+0.27
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.10
防守实力 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.03
Mousa Tamari替补席 (6球, 6助攻)
Quentin Merlin替补席 (1球, 5助攻)
Sebastian Szymanski替补席 (1球, 3助攻)
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
14%进球产出缺失 (仅75%可用)

Olympique Marseille

防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.15
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
-0.07
11%进球产出缺失 (仅88%可用)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.1球)
+0.61
+0.61
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

38%

平局

30%

客胜

33%

进球数

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

双重机会

主胜或平局

67%

客胜或平局

62%

非平局

70%

双方进球

是

55%

否

45%

关键因素
  • Form discrepancy: Rennes is undefeated (Form: DWDWW) while Marseille is struggling in a crisis (Form: LLWLL)
  • Offensive trends: Rennes is currently scoring more frequently (2.8 goals) than their season average, while Marseille's goal production has stalled (1.6 goals)
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Rennes concedes only 1.00 goals at home, whereas Marseille allows an average of 2.08 goals in away matches
风险因素
  • Rennes must play without Mousa Tamari, Quentin Merlin, Sebastian Szymanski, and Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
  • Marseille historically dominated 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches
  • Marseille concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away match
概述

Rennes (5th place, 7 points) host Olympique Marseille (11th place, 3 points) at Roazhon Park

Ligue 1 match on September 11, 2026, 8:45 PM

The mathematical analysis predicts Rennes as the favorite with a 38% probability

近期状态

Rennes started strong with a form of DWDWW, winning their last match against Angers SCO

Olympique Marseille is in a crisis with a form of LLWLL, losing their last game against Paris

The home side secured three wins and two draws in their last five matches

统计数据

Rennes scored an average of 1.74 goals per game this season while conceding 1.47 goals

At home, Rennes concedes an average of only 1.00 goals per match

Marseille averages 1.85 goals per season, but struggles away with an average of 2.08 goals conceded

历史交锋

In the last four head-to-head matches, Marseille won three times and Rennes once

None of these matches ended in a draw

The last meeting on May 17, 2026, was won 3-1 by Marseille at home

关键球员

Estéban Lepaul has already scored 20 goals this season and shows a rising form trend

Valentin Rongier contributed 2 goals and 5 assists, also displaying positive form

For the visitors, Amine Gouiri stands out with 8 goals this season and stable form

门将

Brice Samba kept goal 32 times for Rennes this season, recording 10 clean sheets

Jeffrey de Lange has made 5 appearances so far for Marseille

影响因素

Roazhon Park has proven to be a high-scoring venue, averaging 3.6 goals over the last five games

In all five of these matches, both teams scored and more than 2.5 goals were scored

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