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Ligue 1

Brest - Paris Saint Germain

09/13/2026, 06:45 PM

0 : 1
预期进球
Brest
1.0
Total xG
2.6
Paris Saint Germain
1.6
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

0:2

10%

1:2

10%

2:1

6%

0:3

5%
xG 分解
BREPSG

Brest

排名劣势 (第12位 vs 第1位, 相差11位)
-0.27
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.10
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
+0.10
Romain Del Castillo未进大名单 (9球, 3助攻)
32%进球产出缺失 (仅82%可用)

Paris Saint Germain

防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.24
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第12位, 相差11位)
+0.08
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.4球)
-0.03
Désiré Doué替补席 (7球, 4助攻)
Fabián Ruiz替补席 (1球, 4助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.7球 vs 总体2.5球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

21%

平局

28%

客胜

51%

进球数

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

双重机会

主胜或平局

49%

客胜或平局

79%

非平局

72%

双方进球

51%

49%

关键因素
  • Mathematical away win predicted at 51% probability with 1.61 expected goals
  • Historical dominance with 5 wins in 5 meetings and a 19:2 goal difference for Paris Saint Germain
  • Paris Saint Germain dominated possession recently, averaging 71.4% and 7.4 shots on target
风险因素
  • Fatigue factor: Paris Saint Germain has only 4 days of rest since their last match compared to 8 days for Brest
  • Romain Del Castillo is missing for Brest, leaving only 83% of the regular starting lineup strength available
  • Defensive instability for Brest, conceding an average of 2.4 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.66
概述

Brest hosts Paris Saint Germain at Stade Francis-Le Ble

Ligue 1 fixture on September 13, 2026, 8:45 PM

Brest sits in 7th place with 5 points, while Paris Saint Germain occupies 14th with 2 points

近期状态

Brest holds a form record of LLDDW after winning their last match

Paris Saint Germain features a form of DDDLW, also coming off a victory

Key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Brest scores an average of 1.27 goals and concedes 1.05 at home

Paris Saint Germain averages 2.2 goals scored and 1.13 goals conceded away

Venue historical average stands at 4.4 goals per match with 100% BTTS rate

历史交锋

There are 5 head-to-head matches recorded

Paris Saint Germain won all 5 encounters with a total goal difference of 19:2

Their last meeting finished in a 0:1 victory for Paris Saint Germain

关键球员

Ludovic Ajorque is a key contributor for Brest with 8 goals and 9 assists

Ousmane Dembélé leads Paris Saint Germain with 10 goals and 7 assists

Vitinha commands the midfield with 7 assists and a 7.51 average rating

门将

Egil Selvik is in goal for Brest

Matvey Safonov has guarded the net for Paris Saint Germain over the last 5 matches

Brest kept 9 clean sheets this season, while Paris Saint Germain recorded 18

影响因素

Home advantage for Brest is backed by a solid 1.05 goals conceded average at home

Historic average at Stade Francis-Le Ble highlights high-scoring matches with 4.4 goals per game

The match takes place on a grass pitch

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