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Lens – Olympique Lyonnais2 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Lens
1.34
总 xG
2.80
Olympique Lyonnais
1.46
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Lens | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.64倍) | +0.74 | |
| 小样本 (2场) - 均值回归 | −0.51 | |
| 排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第2位, 相差13位) | −0.45 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.8球) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| 状态上升 (2.5 vs 1.8 赛季平均) | +0.21 | |
| 小样本 (2场) - 均值回归 | +0.20 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | −0.18 | |
| 状态下滑 (1.4 vs 2 赛季平均) | −0.18 | |
| 排名优势 (第2位 vs 第15位, 相差13位) | +0.09 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2球) | +0.06 | |
| Abdallah Sima未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 21%进球产出缺失 (仅76%可用) | ||
| 主场表现强势 (场均2.6球 vs 总体2球) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均0.8球 vs 总体1.8球) |
关键因素
- Form and trend gap: Lens' goal production has slowed down recently (1.4 goals) compared to their season average (2.0), while Olympique Lyonnais are scoring more frequently (2.5) than their average (1.8)
- Unbeaten momentum: Olympique Lyonnais enter the match unbeaten (form: DWDWW) with 2 consecutive wins, while Lens lost 3 of their last 5 games
- Tactical attacking intent: Both sides have been active recently, with Lens averaging 6.2 shots on target and Lyon averaging 6.4 shots on target in their last matches
风险
- Lens' defensive vulnerability: The hosts conceded an average of 1.8 goals in recent matches, which is higher than their season average of 1.15
- Lyon's away defensive record: Olympique Lyonnais conceded an average of 1.47 goals per away game throughout the season
全部概率
赛果
Lens33%
平局28%
Olympique Lyonnais38%
进球
大于 1.578%
小于 1.522%
大于 2.553%
小于 2.547%
大于 3.531%
小于 3.569%
双重机会
Lens或平局62%
Olympique Lyonnais或平局67%
非平局72%
双方均进球
是58%
否42%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
首发阵容
Lens 3-4-2-1 · Olympique Lyonnais 4-3-3
Lens
- 40 R. Risser
- 24 J. Gradit
- 25 P. Ganiou
- 32 K. Antonio
- 2 R. Aguilar
- 27 M. Cuisance
- 8 Y. Titraoui
- 14 M. Udol
- 10 F. Thauvin
- 7 F. Sotoca
- 11 O. Édouard
Olympique Lyonnais
- 1 D. Greif
- 13 Z. Athekame
- 20 F. Bacher
- 21 R. Kluivert
- 16 A. Da Silva Santos
- 2 M. Bidstrup
- 23 T. Morton
- 8 C. Tolisso
- 7 E. Appiah Nuamah
- 10 P. Šulc
- 17 L. Openda
替补
- 5 A. Bulatović
- 23 S. Abdul Hamid
- 6 S. Baidoo
- 21 A. Haidara
- 29 F. Ivanović
- 16 M. Gorgelin
- 28 J. Kadile
- 22 M. Skóraś
- 38 M.Soares
- 24 J. Duranville
- 85 N. Kamara
- 22 C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
- 18 K. Merah
- 40 R. Descamps
- 6 T. Tessmann
- 99 N. Teye Nartey
- 26 K. Boudache
- 11 K. Nakamura
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