Premier League
AFC Bournemouth - Sunderland
02/28/2026, 12:30 PM
预期进球
1.5
2.4
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
12%0:0
11%2:0
10%2:1
9%xG 分解
AFC Bournemouth
Sunderland
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
48%
平局
30%
客胜
22%
进球数
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
双重机会
主胜或平局
78%
客胜或平局
52%
非平局
70%
双方进球
是
48%
否
52%
关键因素
- Defensive fragility: Sunderland's extremely weak away defense (3.33 goals conceded on average) meets a solid Bournemouth home attack
- Form difference: Bournemouth is unbeaten in five games (WWDWD), while Sunderland is inconsistent, having lost three of their last five (WLLWL)
- Statistical forecast: The mathematical model favors Bournemouth with a 48% win probability, highlighting the home advantage and better form
风险因素
- Balanced head-to-head: The head-to-head record is even with two wins each, and Sunderland won the last encounter, suggesting a close game is possible
- Weakened Sunderland attack: Key offensive players like Brian Brobbey and Nordi Mukiele are not in the squad, leaving only 64% of the usual goal threat available
概述
AFC Bournemouth (8th place, 38 points) host Sunderland (12th place, 36 points) at the Vitality Stadium
Premier League match on February 28, 2026, 1:30 PM
A mid-table clash where the home team aims to solidify their spot in the top half with a win
近期状态
AFC Bournemouth is in excellent form, unbeaten in their last five matches
Form: WWDWD (3 wins, 2 draws)
Sunderland shows inconsistent form with three losses in their last five games
Form: WLLWL (2 wins, 3 losses)
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
统计数据
Bournemouth has a stronger attack, averaging 1.59 goals per game compared to Sunderland's 1.04
Sunderland's away weakness is particularly striking, conceding an average of 3.33 goals per away game
Bournemouth is more defensively stable at home, conceding only 1.08 goals per game
Matches at the Vitality Stadium are often high-scoring, with an average of 3.8 goals in the last five home games
历史交锋
The historical record between the two teams is perfectly balanced
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for Bournemouth, 2 wins for Sunderland, and 1 draw
The goal difference is 7-6 in favor of Bournemouth
Sunderland won the last encounter 3-2
关键球员
For Bournemouth, Eli Kroupi (8 season goals), Marcus Tavernier (5 goals, 3 assists), and the strong defender Marcos Senesi (4 assists) are key
For Sunderland, hopes are on Enzo Le Fée (4 goals, 4 assists), experienced midfielder Granit Xhaka (1 goal, 5 assists), and forward Chemsdine Talbi (3 goals)
门将
In goal for Bournemouth is Djordje Petrovic, who has kept 7 clean sheets this season
Sunderland relies on Robin Roefs, who has kept a clean sheet 8 times this season
影响因素
The home advantage for Bournemouth is statistically significant, as they are much more stable at home (1.08 goals conceded) than Sunderland is away (3.33 goals conceded)
The Vitality Stadium is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.8 goals per match in the last five fixtures
Both teams scored in all of Bournemouth's last five home matches