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Premier League

Brighton & Hove Albion - Nottingham Forest

03/01/2026, 02:00 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.4
Total xG
2.7
Nottingham Forest
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
B&HANF

Brighton & Hove Albion

最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.24
状态下滑 (0.6 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
-0.24
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.74倍)
-0.12
Yasin Ayari未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)

Nottingham Forest

防守不足 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
+0.20
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.10
客场表现不佳 (场均0.9球 vs 总体1.3球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

40%

平局

29%

客胜

31%

进球数

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

双重机会

主胜或平局

69%

客胜或平局

60%

非平局

71%

双方进球

56%

44%

关键因素
  • Strong home defense meets weak away attack: Brighton concedes only 0.93 goals per game at home, while Forest scores just 0.92 away
  • Brighton's offensive slump: The home team's goal production has dropped from 1.4 to just 0.6 goals per game in recent matches
  • Nottingham Forest's high shot frequency: Despite their league position, the visitors average 5.8 shots on target per game, posing a threat
风险因素
  • Potential fatigue for Nottingham Forest: The team has had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Low-scoring games at the venue: Brighton's last 5 home games averaged only 1.4 goals, with none going over 2.5 goals
概述

Brighton & Hove Albion (14th place, 34 points) host Nottingham Forest (17th place, 27 points) at The American Express Community Stadium

Premier League match on March 1, 2026, 3:00 PM

A mid-table clash where the visitors urgently need points to fight relegation

The mathematical analysis suggests a close game, with a slight edge for Brighton (40% win probability)

近期状态

Brighton & Hove Albion form: D L L L W (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

In the last 5 games, there was 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

The recent win ended a four-game winless streak

Nottingham Forest form: L D W L L

The record for the last 5 games is identical: 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Forest enters this match with two consecutive defeats

统计数据

Brighton scores an average of 1.33 goals per game this season and concedes 1.26

At home, their defense is stronger, allowing only 0.93 goals per game

Nottingham Forest has one of the weakest attacks in the league with 0.93 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.54 goals away

Both teams scored in 17 of Brighton's 27 matches, while this was the case in 10 of Forest's 27 games

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Brighton has the edge with 2 wins, while Nottingham Forest won once, and 2 matches ended in a draw

The goal difference favours Nottingham Forest at 9:5

Brighton won the last meeting 2-0

关键球员

Danny Welbeck is Brighton's top scorer with 9 goals this season

Pascal Groß consistently delivers strong performances in midfield with an average rating of 7.14

Defender Jan Paul van Hecke has already contributed 3 goals and 2 assists

Morgan Gibbs-White is the key player for Forest with 6 goals and 2 assists

Elliot Anderson impresses in midfield with a very high average rating of 7.26

Ibrahim Sangaré is a crucial pillar in midfield with 2 goals and 2 assists this season

门将

Bart Verbruggen is in goal for Brighton; his team has kept 6 clean sheets this season

Matz Sels will be in goal for Nottingham Forest, who have also kept 6 clean sheets

影响因素

Brighton shows clear home advantage, especially defensively with only 0.93 goals conceded per home game

The last five matches at this stadium have been noticeably low-scoring, with an average of just 1.4 goals per game

None of Brighton's last five home games have had more than 2.5 goals

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