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Premier League

Arsenal - Chelsea

03/01/2026, 04:30 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Arsenal
1.7
Total xG
3.2
Chelsea
1.5
最可能的比分

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
xG 分解
ARSCHE

Arsenal

防守实力 (场均失0.7球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.81
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.45倍)
+0.16
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.8球)
+0.11
Mikel Merino未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
Martin Ødegaard未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)

Chelsea

进攻实力 (联赛平均的2.06倍)
+0.37
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.6球)
+0.15
状态上升 (2.6 vs 2.1 赛季平均)
+0.15
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.06
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

39%

平局

26%

客胜

35%

进球数

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

38%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

双重机会

主胜或平局

65%

客胜或平局

61%

非平局

74%

双方进球

65%

35%

关键因素
  • Fortress Emirates Stadium: Arsenal's extremely strong home defense (only 0.5 goals conceded per game) meets Chelsea's in-form attack
  • Head-to-Head Dominance: Arsenal is unbeaten in five encounters against Chelsea (3 wins, 2 draws), holding a psychological advantage
  • Clash of the In-Form: Both teams enter the match with an identical five-game unbeaten streak, suggesting a tight and intense contest
风险因素
  • Chelsea's defensive woes: The extensive injury list, particularly the absence of defenders like W. Fofana, L. Colwill, and M. Cucurella, poses a significant risk
  • Arsenal's missing midfield engine: The absence of M. Merino Zazó­n (4 goals, 3 assists) could impact Arsenal's creativity in the middle of the park
  • Limited data availability: Missing Expected Goals (xG) data for Arsenal in recent games could affect the accuracy of their offensive performance analysis
概述

A top-tier clash in the Premier League: leaders Arsenal (1st place, 61 points) host city rivals Chelsea (6th place, 45 points) at the Emirates Stadium

The London derby takes place on March 1, 2026, at 4:30 PM

Arsenal aims to extend their lead at the top, while Chelsea looks to stay in contention for European spots

近期状态

Both teams are in scintillating form and are unbeaten in their last five matches

Arsenal's form: WDWDW (3 wins, 2 draws)

Chelsea's form: WWDWD (3 wins, 2 draws)

Both Arsenal and Chelsea have identical records in their last five games, entering the derby with high confidence

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

With only 21 goals conceded in 28 games, Arsenal has one of the strongest defenses in the league (0.75 avg per game)

Arsenal is particularly dominant at home, conceding an average of just 0.5 goals

Chelsea also possesses a strong attack, scoring an average of 1.78 goals per game

Away from home, the Blues are even more potent, with an average of 1.79 goals per game

An average of 3.4 goals have been scored in the last five matches at the Emirates Stadium

历史交锋

Arsenal has had the clear upper hand in recent head-to-head encounters

In the last 5 duels, Arsenal won 3 times, 2 matches ended in a draw, and Chelsea failed to secure a win

The goal difference is 7:4 in favor of Arsenal

Arsenal also won the most recent meeting 1-0

关键球员

For Arsenal, striker Viktor Gyökeres stands out with 10 season goals, including 3 in his last 3 appearances

In midfield, Declan Rice (4 goals, 4 assists) and Martí­n Zubimendi (5 goals, 1 assist) are the key playmakers

For Chelsea, João Pedro is the top scorer with 11 season goals and 4 assists, having scored 4 times in the last 4 games

He is supported by in-form midfielders Enzo Fernández (8 goals, 2 assists) and Cole Palmer (8 goals, 1 assist)

门将

The match features a goalkeeper duel between David Raya (Arsenal) and Robert Sánchez (Chelsea)

Raya has kept 13 clean sheets this season

Sánchez has collected 9 clean sheets for Chelsea so far

影响因素

Arsenal's home advantage is a crucial factor, with an impressive record of only 8 goals conceded in 16 home games

The Emirates Stadium has recently been a venue for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.4 goals in the last five matches

Four of these five games saw over 2.5 goals

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