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Premier League

Wolverhampton Wanderers - Aston Villa

02/27/2026, 08:00 PM

2 : 0
预期进球
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.0
Total xG
2.5
Aston Villa
1.5
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

0:1

11%

0:0

10%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%
xG 分解
WWAV

Wolverhampton Wanderers

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.78倍)
-0.40
排名劣势 (第20位 vs 第3位, 相差17位)
-0.18
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.03
38%进球产出缺失 (仅50%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.2球 vs 总体0.9球)

Aston Villa

最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.25
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
-0.25
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第20位, 相差17位)
+0.10
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

25%

平局

30%

客胜

45%

进球数

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

双重机会

主胜或平局

55%

客胜或平局

75%

非平局

70%

双方进球

51%

49%

关键因素
  • League table gap: The clash between third-placed Aston Villa (51 points) and bottom-of-the-league Wolverhampton (10 points) highlights a huge difference in quality.
  • Statistical dominance: Aston Villa is significantly superior in both attack (1.41 vs 0.64 goals/game) and defense (1.04 vs 1.82 goals conceded/game).
  • Weakened Wolves attack: Only 50% of the seasonal goal threat is available in Wolverhampton's squad, further hampering their already weak offense.
风险因素
  • Identical short-term form: Both teams have the exact same record in their last five games (1W, 2D, 2L), which could suggest a closer match than the league table implies.
  • Unpredictable venue: Recent games at Molineux Stadium have been unexpectedly high-scoring (3.4 goals average), which could give the match an unpredictable dynamic.
概述

Wolverhampton Wanderers (20th place, 10 points) host Aston Villa (3rd place, 51 points) at Molineux Stadium

Premier League match on February 27, 2026, 8:00 PM

The mathematical analysis clearly favors the visitors with a 45% win probability

It's a clear clash between a relegation candidate and a top-tier team

近期状态

Both teams show identical form from their last five matches

Wolverhampton Wanderers: LDWDL (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)

Aston Villa: LDWLD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)

Despite the large gap in the league table, the short-term form of both teams is comparable

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

The season statistics show a clear superiority for Aston Villa

With just 0.64 goals per game, Wolverhampton has one of the weakest offenses in the league and concedes an average of 1.82 goals

Aston Villa scores an average of 1.41 goals and concedes only 1.04 goals per game

The Wolves have failed to score in 15 of their 28 league matches this season

历史交锋

In the last five head-to-head encounters, Aston Villa has the upper hand

The visitors have won 3 of the last 5 matches, with one win for the Wolves and one draw

The goal difference is 7-4 in favor of Aston Villa

The last match ended in a 1-0 victory for Aston Villa

关键球员

For Wolverhampton Wanderers, Santiago Bueno (2 goals, 1 assist) and Mateus Mané (2 goals, 1 assist) are the season's top scorers

For Aston Villa, Morgan Rogers (8 goals, 5 assists) and Ollie Watkins (8 goals, 1 assist) stand out offensively

Not in the Aston Villa squad are John McGinn (3 goals, 2 assists) and Donyell Malen (4 goals, 1 assist)

门将

The goalkeeping duel is between José Sá for Wolverhampton and Emiliano Martínez for Aston Villa

Martínez has kept 8 clean sheets this season

Sá has managed this in 3 matches

影响因素

Wolverhampton's home advantage is statistically minimal, with only 0.65 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per home game

However, it's noteworthy that the last five games at Molineux Stadium have been very high-scoring, with an average of 3.4 goals per game

This contrasts with the Wolves' otherwise toothless attack this season

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