Premier League
Burnley - Brentford
02/28/2026, 03:00 PM
预期进球
1.1
2.5
1.4
1:1
14%0:0
10%0:1
10%1:2
9%0:2
8%xG 分解
Burnley
Brentford
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
29%
平局
30%
客胜
41%
进球数
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
双重机会
主胜或平局
59%
客胜或平局
71%
非平局
70%
双方进球
是
52%
否
48%
关键因素
- Clear difference in league position and form: 19th-placed Burnley with form LLWLD faces 7th-placed Brentford with form WWDWL
- Offensive mismatch: Brentford's attack (1.48 goals/game), led by top scorer Igor Thiago (17 goals), meets one of the league's weakest defenses (Burnley, 1.93 goals conceded/game)
- Mathematical probability: The analysis favors an away win with a 41% probability, compared to a 29% chance for a home win
风险因素
- Brentford's defensive away weakness: They concede an average of 2.00 goals per away game, which could open up chances for Burnley
- Numerous injuries: Both teams have significant players sidelined, which could impact team performance. Burnley is particularly affected with seven injured players
概述
Burnley (19th place, 19 points) hosts Brentford (7th place, 40 points) at Turf Moor
This is a Premier League match on February 28, 2026, 3:00 PM
The home side faces a crucial game in their relegation battle, while the visitors are aiming for European spots
近期状态
Burnley's form in the last five games is LLWLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
They have recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Brentford's form in the last five games is WWDWL
They have secured 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, indicating significantly stronger current form
统计数据
Burnley scores an average of 1.07 goals per game this season and concedes 1.93
Brentford scores an average of 1.48 goals per game and concedes 1.37
A notable statistic is Brentford's defense in away games, where they concede an average of 2.00 goals
The last five games at Turf Moor have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.8 goals per match
历史交锋
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there have been 2 wins for Burnley and 3 wins for Brentford
The goal difference is 6:10 in favor of Brentford
Brentford won the last encounter 3-1
关键球员
For Burnley, attacking players Jaidon Anthony (6 season goals) and Zian Flemming (6 season goals) are crucial
In midfield, Hannibal recently proved his goal threat with a goal
For Brentford, Igor Thiago is the outstanding striker with 17 season goals
He is supported by Dango Ouattara (5 goals) and Kevin Schade (6 goals)
门将
In goal for Burnley is Martin Dúbravka, who has kept 3 clean sheets this season
Hákun Valdimarsson starts for Brentford
The Brentford team has a total of 6 clean sheets this season
影响因素
Statistically, Burnley does not have a clear home advantage, with an average of 1.09 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded at home
A significant factor could be the venue itself, as Turf Moor has recently seen a high number of goals (average of 3.8 per game in the last 5 matches)
Both teams scored in 80% of these games