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Premier League

Burnley - Brentford

02/28/2026, 03:00 PM

3 : 4
预期进球
Burnley
1.1
Total xG
2.5
Brentford
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

0:1

10%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%
xG 分解
BURBRE

Burnley

防守不足 (场均失2球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.45
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.75倍)
-0.29
排名劣势 (第19位 vs 第7位, 相差12位)
-0.15
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.07

Brentford

最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.10
状态下滑 (1.2 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
-0.10
排名优势 (第7位 vs 第19位, 相差12位)
+0.08
Vitaly Janelt未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体1.5球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

29%

平局

30%

客胜

41%

进球数

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

双重机会

主胜或平局

59%

客胜或平局

71%

非平局

70%

双方进球

52%

48%

关键因素
  • Clear difference in league position and form: 19th-placed Burnley with form LLWLD faces 7th-placed Brentford with form WWDWL
  • Offensive mismatch: Brentford's attack (1.48 goals/game), led by top scorer Igor Thiago (17 goals), meets one of the league's weakest defenses (Burnley, 1.93 goals conceded/game)
  • Mathematical probability: The analysis favors an away win with a 41% probability, compared to a 29% chance for a home win
风险因素
  • Brentford's defensive away weakness: They concede an average of 2.00 goals per away game, which could open up chances for Burnley
  • Numerous injuries: Both teams have significant players sidelined, which could impact team performance. Burnley is particularly affected with seven injured players
概述

Burnley (19th place, 19 points) hosts Brentford (7th place, 40 points) at Turf Moor

This is a Premier League match on February 28, 2026, 3:00 PM

The home side faces a crucial game in their relegation battle, while the visitors are aiming for European spots

近期状态

Burnley's form in the last five games is LLWLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They have recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Brentford's form in the last five games is WWDWL

They have secured 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, indicating significantly stronger current form

统计数据

Burnley scores an average of 1.07 goals per game this season and concedes 1.93

Brentford scores an average of 1.48 goals per game and concedes 1.37

A notable statistic is Brentford's defense in away games, where they concede an average of 2.00 goals

The last five games at Turf Moor have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.8 goals per match

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there have been 2 wins for Burnley and 3 wins for Brentford

The goal difference is 6:10 in favor of Brentford

Brentford won the last encounter 3-1

关键球员

For Burnley, attacking players Jaidon Anthony (6 season goals) and Zian Flemming (6 season goals) are crucial

In midfield, Hannibal recently proved his goal threat with a goal

For Brentford, Igor Thiago is the outstanding striker with 17 season goals

He is supported by Dango Ouattara (5 goals) and Kevin Schade (6 goals)

门将

In goal for Burnley is Martin Dúbravka, who has kept 3 clean sheets this season

Hákun Valdimarsson starts for Brentford

The Brentford team has a total of 6 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Statistically, Burnley does not have a clear home advantage, with an average of 1.09 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded at home

A significant factor could be the venue itself, as Turf Moor has recently seen a high number of goals (average of 3.8 per game in the last 5 matches)

Both teams scored in 80% of these games

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