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Premier League

Leeds United - Manchester City

02/28/2026, 05:30 PM

0 : 1
预期进球
Leeds United
1.1
Total xG
3.5
Manchester City
2.4
最可能的比分

1:2

10%

1:1

9%

0:2

9%

1:3

8%

0:3

7%
xG 分解
LUMC

Leeds United

防守不足 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.25
排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第2位, 相差13位)
-0.17
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.04
主场表现强势 (场均2球 vs 总体1.5球)

Manchester City

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.63倍)
+1.48
防守实力 (场均失1球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.29
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第15位, 相差13位)
+0.14
最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
-0.03
Erling Haaland未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
42%进球产出缺失 (仅51%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.6球 vs 总体2.3球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

15%

平局

20%

客胜

64%

进球数

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

68%

Under 2.5

32%

Over 3.5

46%

Under 3.5

54%

双重机会

主胜或平局

36%

客胜或平局

85%

非平局

80%

双方进球

62%

38%

关键因素
  • Significant weakening at Man City: The team is missing top striker Erling Haaland (22 goals, 7 assists), leaving only 52% of their usual goal threat on the pitch
  • Stark form and H2H superiority: Manchester City has won their last 4 games and all of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Leeds
  • Tactical dominance: Manchester City's possession-based style (61% average) and high chance creation (5.2 shots on target) are expected to control the game against a counter-attacking Leeds (44% possession)
风险因素
  • Leeds' home strength: Leeds is more defensively stable at home, conceding only 1.12 goals per game at Elland Road
  • Potential for goals on both sides: The mathematical model calculates a 62% probability for both teams to score, suggesting an open match
  • Extensive injury list for City: Besides Haaland's absence from the squad, Man City is also missing other key players like J. Doku and J. Gvardiol, which affects squad depth
概述

Leeds United (15th place, 31 points) hosts Manchester City (2nd place, 56 points) at Elland Road

The Premier League match takes place on February 28, 2026, at 5:30 PM

The hosts are fighting for crucial points against relegation, while the visitors aim to solidify their title ambitions

近期状态

Leeds United's current form: L-W-D-D-D

In the last 5 games, there has been 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

Manchester City's current form: D-W-W-W-W

In the last 5 games, there have been 4 wins and 1 draw, with no losses

Manchester City is on a 4-game winning streak

统计数据

Leeds United scores an average of 1.37 goals per game this season and concedes 1.70

Manchester City scores an average of 2.07 goals per game and concedes only 0.93

In 18 of Leeds' 27 games, both teams scored, while for Manchester City this was the case in 13 of 27 matches

At Elland Road, an average of 3.2 goals per game have been scored in recent matches

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Manchester City has won all 5 games

The goal difference is clearly in favor of Manchester City with 19:4 goals

The last encounter ended in a 3-2 victory for Manchester City

关键球员

For Leeds United, the key players are Dominic Calvert-Lewin (10 goals, 1 assist), Brenden Aaronson (4 goals, 3 assists), and Anton Stach (4 goals, 3 assists)

For Manchester City, Rayan Cherki (3 goals, 7 assists), Antoine Semenyo (3 goals, 1 assist), and Nico O'Reilly (4 goals, 3 assists) are crucial

门将

In goal for Leeds United is Karl Darlow, whose team has kept 4 clean sheets this season

For Manchester City, Gianluigi Donnarumma is the goalkeeper; his team has achieved 11 clean sheets this season

影响因素

Leeds United is defensively more stable at home, conceding an average of only 1.12 goals per game at Elland Road, compared to 2.55 away

Recent matches at Elland Road have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.2 goals per game

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