Premier League
Leeds United - Sunderland
03/03/2026, 07:30 PM
预期进球
1.4
2.4
1.0
1:1
14%1:0
11%0:0
11%2:0
9%2:1
9%xG 分解
Leeds United
Sunderland
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
45%
平局
30%
客胜
25%
进球数
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
双重机会
主胜或平局
75%
客胜或平局
56%
非平局
70%
双方进球
是
49%
否
51%
关键因素
- Defensive advantage: Leeds' strong home defense (1.12 goals conceded) meets Sunderland's disastrous away defense (3.00 goals conceded)
- Guests' offensive slump: Sunderland's goal production has collapsed, with 0.6 goals in recent games falling far short of their season average of 1.2
- Clear favorites: Mathematical models favor Leeds with a 45% win probability and expect more goals (1.40 vs 1.00)
风险因素
- Significant absences for Sunderland: The visitors have only about 60% of their usual goal threat available due to missing key players like Brian Brobbey and Nordi Mukiele
- Potential fatigue: Both teams have had only three days of rest since their last match, which could affect recovery
- Balanced history: Recent head-to-head matches have been very close (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss), which could suggest a tighter game than current form indicates
概述
Leeds United (15th place, 31 points) host Sunderland (12th place, 37 points) at Elland Road
Premier League match on March 3, 2026, 7:30 PM
Leeds are fighting for crucial points against relegation, while Sunderland are positioned in mid-table
The mathematical analysis favors the home team with a 45% win probability
近期状态
Leeds United form: WDDDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
In the last 5 games, there has been 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss
Their form is relatively stable, despite the recent defeat
Sunderland form: LLWLD
Sunderland recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches
The form trend is pointing downwards, with three defeats in this period
统计数据
Leeds United scores an average of 1.32 goals per game, Sunderland 1.04
Defensively, Sunderland has been more stable over the season (1.21 goals conceded) than Leeds (1.68)
However, Sunderland concedes a disastrous average of 3.00 goals per game away from home
Leeds is much more stable at home, conceding only 1.12 goals at Elland Road
历史交锋
The last 5 head-to-head matches have been extremely balanced
Both teams have managed 1 win each, with 3 matches ending in a draw
The goal difference is also identical at 5:5 goals
The last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw
关键球员
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is Leeds' top scorer with 10 goals this season
Brenden Aaronson and Anton Stach are key offensive players in midfield with 4 goals and 3 assists each
For Sunderland, Enzo Le Fée is the pivotal player with 4 goals and 4 assists
Defender Dan Ballard has already scored 2 goals this season
门将
Karl Darlow is in goal for Leeds
The team has kept 4 clean sheets this season, 3 of which were at home
Melker Ellborg will be the goalkeeper for Sunderland
Sunderland has kept 8 clean sheets this season, 3 of them in away games
影响因素
Leeds United enjoys a clear home advantage
Their defense is significantly more stable at Elland Road, conceding only 1.12 goals per game compared to away games
The last five matches at the stadium have averaged 2.4 goals per game
Sunderland's extreme defensive weakness away from home (3.0 goals conceded per game) is a crucial factor