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Premier League

Newcastle United - Manchester United

03/04/2026, 08:15 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Newcastle United
1.3
Total xG
2.9
Manchester United
1.6
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
NUMU

Newcastle United

最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均3球)
+0.30
状态上升 (3 vs 2 赛季平均)
+0.30
排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第3位, 相差10位)
-0.14
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.36倍)
-0.14
防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.03
Bruno Guimarães未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
Nick Woltemade未进首发 (7球, 2助攻)
27%进球产出缺失 (仅77%可用)

Manchester United

防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.14
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第13位, 相差10位)
+0.08
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.01
Diogo Dalot未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
Amad Diallo未进首发 (0球, 0助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

29%

平局

27%

客胜

43%

进球数

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

双重机会

主胜或平局

57%

客胜或平局

71%

非平局

73%

双方进球

60%

40%

关键因素
  • Clear form advantage for Manchester United, who are unbeaten in 5 games, while Newcastle's form is inconsistent
  • The absence of key player Bruno Guimarães (9 goals, 4 assists) is a major blow to Newcastle's midfield
  • Both teams combine a strong attack with a vulnerable defense, suggesting goals are likely (BTTS probability 60%)
风险因素
  • Manchester United's defense is weakened by numerous absences, including Lisandro Martínez and Matthijs de Ligt
  • The visitors have had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
  • Newcastle has won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Manchester United
概述

Newcastle United (13th place, 36 points) host Manchester United (3rd place, 51 points) at St. James' Park

Premier League match on March 4, 2026, 9:15 PM

The visitors aim to solidify their spot in the top 3, while Newcastle is stuck in mid-table

近期状态

Newcastle United form: WWLWL

In the last 5 matches, there have been 3 wins and 2 losses

Most recently, a 2-3 loss against Everton

Manchester United form: WWDWW

Unbeaten in 5 matches with 4 wins and 1 draw

Currently on a 2-game winning streak

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Manchester United has a stronger attack, averaging 1.79 goals per game compared to Newcastle's 1.43

Both teams are defensively vulnerable; Newcastle concedes 1.50 goals per game, Manchester United 1.36

Away from home, Man Utd's defense is particularly weak, conceding 1.69 goals per game

Both teams scored in 18 of Newcastle's 28 games, and in 20 of Man Utd's 28 games

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Newcastle United won 3 times, Manchester United 2 times

There were no draws

The goal difference is 9:5 in favor of Newcastle

The last meeting was won by Manchester United with a score of 1-0

关键球员

Harvey Barnes has scored 5 goals for Newcastle this season

Anthony Gordon has been directly involved in 5 goals (3 goals, 2 assists)

Defender Malick Thiaw has surprisingly contributed 4 goals this season

Bruno Fernandes is the key player for Manchester United with 7 goals and 13 assists

Bryan Mbeumo is an important attacker with 9 goals

Benjamin Sesko has also scored 8 goals

门将

In goal for Newcastle is Aaron Ramsdale

The team has kept 7 clean sheets this season

Senne Lammens is the goalkeeper for Manchester United

The team has kept a clean sheet in 5 matches this season

影响因素

At St. James' Park, there's an average of 4.0 total goals per game in recent matches

In 4 of the last 5 home games for Newcastle, there were over 2.5 goals

Manchester United is strong away, scoring an average of 1.77 goals per game

However, they also concede 1.69 goals per game on the road

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